Delinquent Indicator

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A leading indicator of the health of any real estate market is Mortgage Delinquencies.

Specifically, the percentage of mortgages which are at least 30 days delinquent can foretell the amount of distressed properties that may hit the market in the future.

The most recent research shows that only 4.11% of all loans are delinquent.

This number has dropped for seven quarters in a row and is now at its lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2019 (which was the lowest ever in 20 years).

It is worth noting that the delinquency rate in the years leading up to the housing bubble hovered between 5.5% to 6.0%.

Based on this data, the likelihood of a foreclosure surge or a glut of distressed properties hitting the market is minimal.

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War and Interest Rates

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Our clients are curious to know what the conflict in the Ukraine will mean for mortgage rates.

The short answer is down in the near term and up in the long term.

Generally speaking, economic and political uncertainty drive people to invest in bonds rather than stocks, which puts downward pressure on interest rates.

So, in the near term, the conflict in the Ukraine will push rates down slightly.  We have already seen this happen as 30-year rates have dipped in the last few days.

The conflict is likely to push oil prices up which means higher gasoline prices.  This will cause upward pressure on inflation, which ultimately causes upward pressure on interest rates.

So, the longer the war lasts in Europe, the more likely it is to push interest rates even higher.

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War and Interest Rates

/in , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , /by

Our clients are curious to know what the conflict in the Ukraine will mean for mortgage rates.

The short answer is down in the near term and up in the long term.

Generally speaking, economic and political uncertainty drive people to invest in bonds rather than stocks, which puts downward pressure on interest rates.

So, in the near term, the conflict in the Ukraine will push rates down slightly.  We have already seen this happen as 30-year rates have dipped in the last few days.

The conflict is likely to push oil prices up which means higher gasoline prices.  This will cause upward pressure on inflation, which ultimately causes upward pressure on interest rates.

So, the longer the war lasts in Europe, the more likely it is to push interest rates even higher.

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Money at a Discount

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This week, for the first time in 32 months, mortgage rates hit 4%.

While this increase may feel painful for buyers currently looking at property, it is important to put today’s rates in perspective.

We believe we will look back a few years from now and see that a 4% rate was like buying money at a discount.

Interest rates hovered between 4.5% and 3.75% for the 8-year span of June, 2011 to June 2018

Between January, 2000 and December, 2010 rates were as high as 8.25% and as low as 5.0%.

When looking at the history of interest rates and researching economists’ forecasts, we believe it is reasonable for rates to hit 5% within the next 24 months. 

When interest rates increase 1%, a buyer’s monthly payment increases 10%.

So, if rates do go to 5%, it is like an additional 10% price increase for a buyer.

Given all of this information, we believe the biggest risk to a buyer in today’s market is to wait.

Mortgage rates are likely on their way up and there is an opportunity to buy money at a discount today.

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Money at a Discount

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This week, for the first time in 32 months, mortgage rates hit 4%.

While this increase may feel painful for buyers currently looking at property, it is important to put today’s rates in perspective.

We believe we will look back a few years from now and see that a 4% rate was like buying money at a discount.

Interest rates hovered between 4.5% and 3.75% for the 8-year span of June, 2011 to June 2018

Between January, 2000 and December, 2010 rates were as high as 8.25% and as low as 5.0%.

When looking at the history of interest rates and researching economists’ forecasts, we believe it is reasonable for rates to hit 5% within the next 24 months. 

When interest rates increase 1%, a buyer’s monthly payment increases 10%.

So, if rates do go to 5%, it is like an additional 10% price increase for a buyer.

Given all of this information, we believe the biggest risk to a buyer in today’s market is to wait.

Mortgage rates are likely on their way up and there is an opportunity to buy money at a discount today.

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Record Increase

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Home builders have experienced their largest-ever increase in building costs so far in 2021.

This is according to the latest Producer Price Index report.  

Year to date, building costs are up 14.5%.  This amount tops the previous record of 7.1% which occurred in 2008.

Specific materials which have seen significant increases include lumber, drywall and steel.

The price of steel has risen 117% this year.

These material cost increases combined with increases in items like building permits and tap fees are causing home builders to raise their sales prices.

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Zillow’s Shut Down

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On Wednesday Zillow announced the shut down of its iBuying program because of mounting financial losses and increasing complexity in the real estate market.

The goal of this program was to buy properties directly from Sellers and then re-sell them for a profit.

Before looking at the interesting facts and numbers associated with this news, we want to acknowledge the people who are affected by this.

Zillow’s workforce will be reduced by 25%.  Many people will be laid off and our heart goes out to them.  We certainly wish them only the best.

Within our company we are not surprised by Zillow’s announcement.  We observed many cases where they over-paid for a property, re-listed it for an unrealistic price, dropped the price over time to meet the market, and then sold at an amount much less than what they paid.

It actually became difficult to find specific scenarios where they sold the home for more than their acquisition cost.  It was not uncommon to see losses of $50,000 per home or more.

Here is a quote from their CEO:  “Our observed error rate has been far more volatile than we thought possible.  Fundamentally, we have been unable to predict future pricing of homes to a level of accuracy that makes this a safe business to be in.“

In the third quarter of 2021 alone, their iBuying division lost $328 million.

Bottom line, their valuations were off.

It is a reminder that pricing requires a hyper-local scientific approach versus a generic algorithm

Homes are not commodities.  Each home is highly unique.  Each has its own highly unique location, features, amenities, condition and timing.

Homes can’t be priced like a book or a plane ticket.  Every unique feature must be taken into account.

Nationally, Zillow has about 7,000 homes in backlog which it hopes to sell over the next several months.

Other players remain in the iBuying game and we are more than happy to help you understand those options if you are curious.

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Average Prices

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It’s true, average prices have increased substantially over the last year.

Would you have guessed that Weld County has seen the largest increase along the Front Range?

The specific numbers are below.

As you look at the numbers, it is important to remember that average prices have increased because of appreciation and because there are more higher-end homes that are selling.

The increased volume of high-end transactions has played a big rule in increasing the average price.

Average Price of a Single-Family Home based on closings so far this month:

  • Metro Denver = $675,000
  • Larimer County = $624,000
  • Weld County = $514,000

Average Prices exactly one year ago:

  • Metro Denver = $614,000
  • Larimer County = $549,000
  • Weld County = $417,000

The post Average Prices appeared first on Fort Collins Real Estate | Fort Collins Homes for Sale & Property Search.

Average Prices

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It’s true, average prices have increased substantially over the last year.

Would you have guessed that Weld County has seen the largest increase along the Front Range?

The specific numbers are below.

As you look at the numbers, it is important to remember that average prices have increased because of appreciation and because there are more higher-end homes that are selling.

The increased volume of high-end transactions has played a big rule in increasing the average price.

Average Price of a Single-Family Home based on closings so far this month:

  • Metro Denver = $675,000
  • Larimer County = $624,000
  • Weld County = $514,000

Average Prices exactly one year ago:

  • Metro Denver = $614,000
  • Larimer County = $549,000
  • Weld County = $417,000

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Seller Facts

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Here are some fun facts about recent home sellers. This research comes from the National Association of Realtors survey of home buyers and sellers:

  • 10 years = the average time recent home sellers have lived in their home. This number has remained essentially unchanged for the last ten years. From 1987 to 2007 the average was 6 years.
  • 89% = the percentage of home sellers who use a Realtor to help sell their home. This has been trending higher over the last 20 years. In 2001, 79% of home sellers used a Realtor. As the transaction gets more and more complex, more sellers seek the help of a Realtor.
  • 75% = the percentage of home sellers who found their Realtor through a personal relationship as opposed to seeking out an agent they didn’t know.
  • 77% = the percentage of home sellers who only interviewed one Realtor for the job of selling their home.

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