Q4 2021 Colorado Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

 

Regional Economic Overview

Following a decent summer when Colorado added around 14,000 jobs each month, the pace of recovery has slowed. That said, the latest data shows that more than 320,000 of the 376,000 jobs shed due to the pandemic have now returned. The state still needs to add a little more than 54,000 jobs in order to get back to pre-pandemic employment levels. Even though there has been a slowdown in the job recovery, which is likely due to the rise of new COVID-19 variants, I am still forecasting the state will return to its prior employment peak by the end of the summer. As jobs return, the employment rate continues to drop; it was 5.1% in November, well below the pandemic peak of 12.1%. Although it would be nice to see a lower rate, more people have returned to the workforce and are actively looking for work, which can stall job growth rates. From a regional perspective, unemployment levels range from a low of 3.8% in Boulder, to a high of 5.2% in Grand Junction.

 

Colorado Home Sales

❱ In the final quarter of the year, 11,714 homes sold, representing a drop of 5.3% compared to the fourth quarter of 2020 and a drop of 17.6% compared to the third quarter of the year.

❱ While sales slowed region-wide, 4 of the 12 counties included in this report actually experienced significant sales increases.

❱ I’m not concerned that sales slowed compared to third quarter, as seasonal factors were likely the cause. It’s also likely that the year-over-year decline was due to the fact that there were 30% fewer homes for sale in the fourth quarter of 2021 than there were the previous year.

❱ Pending sales, which are an indicator of future closings, fell 29% compared to the third quarter, suggesting that closings in the first quarter of 2022 may also be light.

 

 

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sales for various counties in Colorado during the fourth quarter of 2021.

 

Colorado Home Prices

A map showing the real estate market percentage changes in various counties in Colorado during the fourth quarter of 2021.

 

❱ The pace of home-price growth continued to slow, albeit modestly. The average sale price rose 14.8% year over year, to an average of $610,275. Prices also rose .8% from the previous quarter.

❱ Boulder County’s price growth was noteworthy, but of even greater interest was that average sale prices are holding above the $1 million ceiling.

❱ Year-over-year, prices rose across all markets covered by this report, with double-digit gains in all but three counties.

❱ The number of homes for sale remains woefully low in most areas, which continues to put upward pressure on home prices. That said, the pace of appreciation slowed through most of 2021. This trend is likely to continue in 2022.

 

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices for various counties in Colorado during the fourth quarter of 2021.

 

Days on Market

❱ The average number of days it took to sell a home in the markets contained in this report fell five days compared to the final quarter of 2020.

❱ The length of time it took to sell a home dropped in every county other than Clear Creek County compared to the same quarter a year ago.

❱ It took an average of only 21 days to sell a home in the region. Although the pace dropped year over year, it rose 9 days compared to the previous quarter.

❱ Ongoing supply limitations and strong demand have caused the pace of sales to remain brisk. That said, the length of time it took to sell a home rose compared to the third quarter. I don’t think this is a major concern and can likely be attributed to seasonal factors.

 

A bar graph showing the average days on market for homes in various counties in Colorado during the fourth quarter of 2021.

Conclusions

A speedometer graph indicating a seller's market in Colorado during the fourth quarter of 2021.

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

Inventory is still lacking, which is causing prices to rise at well-above-average rates. That said, despite how few homes are for sale, the pace of appreciation has been slowing and will likely continue to do so as mortgage rates climb.

My current forecast is for 30-year rates to stairstep higher as we move through the year, which will act as a headwind to price growth. Although I do not see rates getting above 4% until 2023, the increase in borrowing costs will start to have a greater impact on home prices.

In addition to rising mortgage rates, the significant growth in prices over the past year has started to impact housing affordability. Although the market will continue to perform well, rising financing costs and lower affordability may slowly move the market back toward some sort of balance.

All things considered, I am moving the needle a little toward buyers, but it still heavily favors home sellers.

 

About Matthew Gardner

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

 

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

The post Q4 2021 Colorado Real Estate Market Update appeared first on Fort Collins Real Estate | Fort Collins Homes for Sale & Property Search.

Colorado Real Estate Market Update

 

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere real estate agent. 

 

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Colorado’s economy picked up, adding 64,900 new non-agricultural jobs over the past 12 months — a growth rate of 2.4%. Over the past three months, the state added an impressive 28,300 new jobs.

In August, the state unemployment rate was 2.8%, down from 3.4% a year ago. Unemployment rates in all the counties contained in this report were lower than a year ago. It is fair to say that all markets are now at full employment.

 

HOME SALES

  • In the third quarter of 2019, 17,562 homes sold. This is an increase of 5.1% compared to the third quarter of 2018 but 1.6% lower than the second quarter (which can be attributed to seasonality). Pending sales — a sign of future closings —rose 9.7%, suggesting that closings in the final quarter of 2019 are likely to show further improvement.
  • Seven counties contained in this report saw sales growth, while four saw sales activity drop. I am not concerned about this because all the markets that experienced slowing are relatively small and, therefore, subject to significant swings.
  • I was pleased to see an ongoing increase in the number of homes for sale (+16.9%), which means home buyers have more choice and feel less urgency.
  • Inventory levels are moving higher, and demand for housing appears to be quite strong. As I predicted last quarter, home sales rose in the third quarter compared to a year ago.

 

 

HOME PRICES

  • Home prices continue to trend higher, with the average home price in the region rising 3.8% year-over-year to $477,776.
  • Interest rates are at very competitive levels and are likely to remain below 4% for the balance of the year. As a result, prices will continue to rise but at a more modest pace.
  • Appreciation was again strongest in Park County, where prices rose 7.8%. We also saw strong growth in Weld County, which rose 7.4%. Home prices dropped in Clear Creek County, but, as mentioned earlier, this is a small market so I don’t believe this is indicative of an ongoing trend.
  • Affordability remains an issue in many Colorado markets and this will act as a modest headwind to ongoing price growth.

 

 

 

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home in the markets contained in this report rose seven days compared to the third quarter of 2018.
  • The amount of time it took to sell a home rose in all counties compared to the third quarter of 2018.
  • It took an average of 30 days to sell a home in the region — an increase of 1 day compared to the second quarter of this year.
  • The Colorado housing market is still performing well, and the modest increase in the length of time it took to sell a home is a function of greater choice in homes for sale and buyers taking a little longer to choose a home.

 

 

CONCLUSIONS

 

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

For the third quarter of 2019, I continue the trend I started last summer and have moved the needle a little more in favor of buyers. I continue to closely monitor listing activity to see if we get any major bumps above the traditional increase because that may further slow home price growth. However, the trend for 2019 will continue to be a move toward a more balanced market.

 

ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER

 

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

The post Colorado Real Estate Market Update appeared first on Fort Collins Real Estate | Fort Collins Homes for Sale & Property Search.

Colorado Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market (which now includes Clear Creek, Gilpin, and Park counties) is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent. 

 

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Colorado’s economy continues to grow with the addition of 45,900 new non-agricultural jobs over the past 12 months, which represents a growth rate of 1.7%. As I have stated in the last two Gardner Reports, we continue to see a modest slowdown in employment gains, but that is to be expected at this stage of the business cycle.

In May, the state unemployment rate was 3.2%, up from 3.1% a year ago. The increase in the rate is essentially due to labor force growth, which rose by over 55,700 people over the past year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, unemployment rates in all the markets contained in this report were lower than a year ago and are at full employment.

 

HOME SALES

  • In the second quarter of 2019, 17,853 homes sold. This is a drop of 1% compared to the second quarter of 2018 but a substantial 59.9% higher than the first quarter of this year. Pending sales — a sign of future closings — rose 5.8%, suggesting that closings in the third quarter are likely to show further improvement.
  • Half of the counties contained in this report saw sales growth, while the other half had fewer closings. Sales in the small Clear Creek County fell precipitously. However, it was only a drop of 20 sales.
  • The marginal drop in the number of sales compared to a year ago can be attributed to the ongoing increase in listing activity (+34.8%), which continues to give would-be home buyers more choice and less urgency.
  • Inventory levels continue to rise, but demand for housing appears to be ongoing. I am not concerned by the marginal year-over-year slowdown and anticipate that sales will rise again in the third quarter.

 

 

HOME PRICES

  • Home prices continue to trend higher, but the rate of growth has taken a pause, with the average home price in the region rising by just 2.3% year-over-year to $490,575.
  • The drop in interest rates this year has nudged more buyers off the fence and this can allow further price growth as we move through the year.
  • Appreciation was again strongest in Park County, where prices rose 6.1%. We also saw strong growth in Weld County, which rose by 6.1%. Home prices dropped in Clear Creek, Boulder, and Gilpin counties, but I do not see this as being indicative of a trend in these markets.
  • Affordability continues to be an issue in many Colorado markets and this may act as a modest headwind to ongoing price growth. However, some of the slowing may be offset by very favorable mortgage rates.

 

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home in the markets contained in this report rose four days over the second quarter of 2018.
  • The amount of time it took to sell a home rose in all counties except Gilpin when compared to the second quarter of 2018.
  • It took an average of 29 days to sell a home in the region — a drop of 13 days compared to the first quarter of this year.
  • It is likely that the drop in time-on-market was a function of the emerging spring selling season as well as falling mortgage rates.

 

 

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

For the second quarter of 2019, I continue the trend I started last summer and have moved the needle a little more in favor of buyers. I continue to closely monitor listing activity to see if we get any major bumps above the traditional increase because that may further slow home price growth. However, the trend for 2019 will continue to be a move toward a more balanced market.

 

ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

The post Colorado Real Estate Market Update appeared first on Fort Collins Real Estate | Fort Collins Homes for Sale & Property Search.

Colorado Real Estate Market Update

Posted in Colorado Real Estate Market Update by Matthew Gardner, Chief Economist, Windermere Real Estate 

 

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market (which now includes Clear Creek, Gilpin, and Park counties) is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent.

 

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Colorado’s economy continues to grow with the addition of 44,800 new non-agricultural jobs over the past 12 months. This represents a reasonable growth rate of 1.7%. As stated in last quarter’s Gardner Report, we continue to see a modest slowdown in employment gains, but that’s to be expected at this stage of the business cycle. I predict that employment growth in Colorado will pick back up as we move through the year, adding a total of 70,000 new jobs in 2019, which represents a growth rate of 2.6%.

In February, the state unemployment rate was 3.7%, up from 2.9% a year ago. The increase is essentially due to labor force growth, which rose by more than 84,000 people over the past year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, unemployment rates in all the markets contained in this report haven’t moved much in the past year, but Boulder saw a modest drop (2.7%), and the balance of the state either remained at the same level as a year ago or rose very modestly.

 

HOME SALES

  • In the first quarter of 2019, 11,164 homes sold — a drop of 3% compared to the first quarter of 2018 and down 13.5% from the fourth quarter of last year. Pending sales in the quarter were a mixed bag. Five counties saw an increase, but five showed signs of slowing.
  • The only market that had sales growth was Adams, which rose 4.9%. The rest of the counties contained in this report saw sales decline, with a significant drop in the small Park County area.
  • I believe the drop in the number of home sales is partially due to the significant increase in listings (+45.6%), which has given would-be home buyers more choice and less need to act quickly.
  • As mentioned above, inventory growth in the quarter was significant, but I continue to believe that the market will see sales rise. I expect the second half of the year to perform better than the first.

 

 

HOME PRICES

  • Home prices continue to trend higher, but the rate of growth is tapering. The average home price in the region rose just 2.1% year-over-year to $456,243. Home prices were .3% higher than in the fourth quarter of 2018.
  • I anticipate that the drop in interest rates early in the year will likely get more buyers off the fence and this will allow prices to rise.
  • Appreciation was again strongest in Park County, where prices rose 21.9%. We still attribute this rapid increase to it being a small market. Only Clear Creek County experienced a drop in average home price. Similar to Park County, this is due to it being a very small market, making it more prone to significant swings.
  • Affordability remains an issue in many Colorado markets but that may be offset by the drop in interest rates.

 

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home in Colorado rose five days compared to the first quarter of 2018.
  • The amount of time it took to sell a home dropped in two counties — Gilpin and Park — compared to the first quarter of 2018. The rest of the counties in this report saw days-on-market rise modestly with the exception of the small Clear Creek market, which rose by 26 days.
  • In the first quarter of 2019, it took an average of 42 days to sell a home in the region, an increase of four days compared to the final quarter of 2018.
  • Job growth drives housing demand, but buyers are faced with more choice and are far less frantic than they were over the past few years. That said, I anticipate the late spring will bring more activity and sales.

 

 

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

For the first quarter of 2019, I have moved the needle a little more in favor of buyers. I am watching listing activity closely to see if we get any major bumps above the traditional increase because that may further slow home price growth; however, the trend for 2019 will continue towards a more balanced market.

 

 

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

The post Colorado Real Estate Market Update appeared first on Fort Collins Real Estate | Fort Collins Homes for Sale & Property Search.