Compound Effect

If you have driven on I-25 lately you may have noticed that the Front Range is a popular place.

The projections show that it will only get more popular in the future.

Today, 4.8 million people live along the Front Range from Fort Collins down to Pueblo.

In 2030, just 11 short years from now, 5.7 million people will live here. Yes, that’s almost 1 million more than today.

This is all according to the Colorado State Demographers Office.

While this seems like a big increase, keep in mind that this assumes that population growth occurs at a fairly modest 1.7% per year.

It seems that our state will continue to grow and there will continue to be a demand for housing.

 

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Sign Surprise

Given how active our market is today and has been over the last few years, many people assume that virtually every home with a “For Sale” sign in the front yard is already under contract.

 

They are surprised to learn that, in most cases, the “For Sale” sign does indeed represent a home that is actively for sale.

 

For example, today in Fort Collins there are 655 single-family homes on the market. 290 of these are under contract and will be closing soon. 365 of these are still active. So, 56% of the signs in Fort Collins are in front of homes that are still available.

 


Here are the specific numbers for each of our Northern Colorado markets:
• Fort Collins = 56%
• Loveland = 57%
• Windsor = 58%
• Greeley = 41%

 

 

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Over List

A statistic we keep our eye on is the percentage of homes which sell for at least list price.

In a robust, healthy, market with lower inventory, we will frequently see homes selling for their asking price or even higher.

 

Here are the number of sales that occur for list price or higher in each of our major markets:

• Fort Collins = 60%
• Loveland = 60%
• Greeley = 71%
• Windsor = 56%

 


There are a couple of things we notice about these numbers. First, well over half of all sales are for at least list price. This means that a buyer needs to be prepared to make a full price offer (or higher) in most cases. This also means that if a seller is priced right and marketed effectively, they should achieve their asking price.

We also notice that these percentages are lower than one year ago. In 2018 these numbers were 5% to 10% higher in each market. This is good news for buyers of course because the bidding wars are not as intense as last year.

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Where Are The Sales?

 

 

A high-level look at the Northern Colorado region shows that the number of residential sales is down 5.4% in Larimer County and up 4.7% in Weld County. This is simply comparing the number of closings from June 2018 to June 2019 versus June 2017 to June 2018.

 

The high-level look doesn’t tell the whole story. It get’s more interesting when we look at individual Northern Colorado cities and towns:

• Fort Collins = -8.8%
• Loveland = -5.7%
• Greeley = +11.7%
• Windsor = +16%
• Wellington = -16.9%
• Timnath = +44.1%
• Severance = +20.4%
• Johnstown = -18.7%
• Berthoud = +18.1%
• Evans = -14.7%

 

So, what can we learn from this? The areas with increased sales are where there is an abundance of new construction (Timnath and Severance for example).

The areas with decreased sales don’t have an abundance of new construction (Fort Collins for example).

The exceptions to this would be Wellington and Johnstown. It appears that there is price sensitivity to the new construction product now being built in these areas. Given rising costs, builders are challenged to deliver a product under $350,000 in these places.

For instance, in Wellington, between June 2017 and June 2018 there were 137 sales of new homes priced under $350,000. Today there are only 6 new homes on the market at that price point.

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New Home News!

 

 

Nationally, sales of new homes are stronger than they have been in a long time. March was the best month since 2007 and April was the third-best month in that same time period.

 

This research comes from the National Association of Home Builders who show that we are on pace to sell 673,000 new homes this year across the Country.  5 years ago there were roughly 450,000 sales of new homes.

 

For the first four months of 2019, new home sales are 6.7% ahead of the sales pace of the initial four months of 2018.

 

What is interesting is that those gains have distinct regional clustering. Year-to-date sales are up 10.3% in the South, 6.7% in the West (concentrated in the Mountain states), and 1.3% in the Midwest, while recording a 17.6% decline in the Northeast.

 

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Down Again

Mortgage rates dropped again for the fourth week in a row.

The average 30-year rate is now 4.06% which is the lowest it has been all year.

Rates today are actually the lowest they have been since early 2018.

The main factor driving rates down is the trade war with China.

Investors are shifting money from stocks into bonds which causes the yield on the 10-year Treasury to drop.

Mortgage rates are closely aligned with the 10-year Treasury.

At the beginning of the year, most experts believed that 2019 would have a trend of increasing mortgage rates eventually reaching 5.5%.

Instead, the opposite has happened which is good news for real estate.

The post Down Again appeared first on Fort Collins Real Estate | Fort Collins Homes for Sale & Property Search.

Down Again

 

Mortgage rates dropped again for the fourth week in a row.

 

The average 30-year rate is now 4.06% which is the lowest it has been all year.

Rates today are actually the lowest they have been since early 2018.

The main factor driving rates down is the trade war with China.

Investors are shifting money from stocks into bonds which causes the yield on the 10-year Treasury to drop.

Mortgage rates are closely aligned with the 10-year Treasury.

At the beginning of the year, most experts believed that 2019 would have a trend of increasing mortgage rates eventually reaching 5.5%.

Instead, the opposite has happened which is good news for real estate.

The post Down Again appeared first on Fort Collins Real Estate | Fort Collins Homes for Sale & Property Search.

The Question of the Day

As we are helping people understand their new property assessments and putting together information so that they may protest their new valuation, here is the most common question we hear…

Did my property really go up that much?

Here are some stats that will help you answer that question.

First, you need to know that property assessments are done by the County every two years. So, as you look at how much your property increased in value according to the County, keep in mind that this increase is over a two-year period.

 

Next, it will help you to know how much our markets increased, on average, over the last two years. This data comes from our most trusted source, the Federal Housing Finance Authority.

Two Year Appreciation:

• Metro Denver = 18.65%
• Larimer County = 17.60%
• Weld County = 22.31%
• Boulder County = 16.28%


If you have questions about your new valuation or how to protest your property’s assessment, we would be happy to help. Just reach out and let us know.

 

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Inventory vs. Sales

A stat we find interesting is the relationship between the inventory for sale versus what is actually selling.

Specifically what we look at are price ranges.

We are curious to know if the inventory that is for sale lines up with what the buyers want.

Here’s what we notice…

In Larimer County, 23% of all the single family homes for sale are priced under $400,000. No surprise, this is a popular price range among buyers and it represents 45% of all sales.

So, the ratio is 23% of the inventory versus 45% of the sales.

In Weld County, the difference is more pronounced.

Homes under $400,000 represent 44% of the inventory and 69% of the sales.

Because the percentage of sales is higher than the percentage of inventory, properties under $400,000 will sell much quicker and are more likely to have multiple offers.

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To see the latest on the market, be sure to check out a copy of the new Gardner Report, our Chief Economist’s quarterly look at Front Range real estate.

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Tax Time

Property owners all over Colorado have a gift waiting for them in their mailbox- their new property tax notifications.

Every two years, each county in Colorado places a new value on property for property tax purposes.

No surprise, values were up along the Front Range.

Here is the percentage of increase for various Colorado counties (keep in mind that this increase is for two years):

  • Adams 24%
  • Arapahoe 22%
  • Larimer 19%
  • Douglas 14%
  • Jefferson 14%
  • Boulder 12%

If you have questions about how to respond to your tax notification, we can help!  We would be happy to provide you with an up-to-date market analysis and walk you through the steps on how to protest your new value if you don’t agree with it.

 

You can also watch this webinar we put together which shows you everything you need to know about your new property valuation and how to respond. 

You can watch it HERE.

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