Bubble Talk

A hot topic of conversation these days is the prospect of another real estate bubble.  People wonder if prices can continue at their current pace and some fear a repeat of 2008.

 

Because we get asked about this topic so often from our clients, we thought it would make sense to ask our in-house expert, Matthew Gardner.

 

Matthew is our Chief Economist and was our Keynote Speaker at the Windermere Annual Market Forecast.

 

During the Forecast presentation, he discussed the bubble concerns and laid out his reasons why he sees no potential of prices bursting along the Front Range.

 

Quite the opposite actually, he sees that prices will continue to go up, but just not as fast as they have been.

 

His reasons for no bubble bursting are as follows:

  • Record-low inventory – prices cannot crash without a glut of supply on the market
  • Highly-qualified buyers – lending guidelines are more stringent today than they have been in our lifetime
  • Growing jobs – job growth in Colorado is projected to far outpace the national average this coming year

So, we project a healthy real estate market in 2021.

To see a replay of the Forecast presentation, simply reach out to us, we would be happy to send you the recording.

blowing bubbles

At Windermere Real Estate we are taking Safer at Home and Social Distancing very seriously.  Our people are following our Safe Showings protocol, staying connected to their clients, and providing help wherever needed.

The post Bubble Talk appeared first on Fort Collins Real Estate | Fort Collins Homes for Sale & Property Search.

Bubble Talk

A hot topic of conversation these days is the prospect of another real estate bubble.  People wonder if prices can continue at their current pace and some fear a repeat of 2008.

 

Because we get asked about this topic so often from our clients, we thought it would make sense to ask our in-house expert, Matthew Gardner.

 

Matthew is our Chief Economist and was our Keynote Speaker at the Windermere Annual Market Forecast.

 

During the Forecast presentation, he discussed the bubble concerns and laid out his reasons why he sees no potential of prices bursting along the Front Range.

 

Quite the opposite actually, he sees that prices will continue to go up, but just not as fast as they have been.

 

His reasons for no bubble bursting are as follows:

  • Record-low inventory – prices cannot crash without a glut of supply on the market
  • Highly-qualified buyers – lending guidelines are more stringent today than they have been in our lifetime
  • Growing jobs – job growth in Colorado is projected to far outpace the national average this coming year

So, we project a healthy real estate market in 2021.

To see a replay of the Forecast presentation, simply reach out to us, we would be happy to send you the recording.

blowing bubbles

At Windermere Real Estate we are taking Safer at Home and Social Distancing very seriously.  Our people are following our Safe Showings protocol, staying connected to their clients, and providing help wherever needed.

The post Bubble Talk appeared first on Fort Collins Real Estate | Fort Collins Homes for Sale & Property Search.

Matthew Gardner Weekly COVID-19 Housing & Economic Update: 5/11/2020

Job growth is critical to the health of the housing market, so on this week’s episode of “Mondays with Matthew,”  Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner analyzes the effect of COVID-19 on employment and what we can expect for the duration of the year.

The post Matthew Gardner Weekly COVID-19 Housing & Economic Update: 5/11/2020 appeared first on Fort Collins Real Estate | Fort Collins Homes for Sale & Property Search.

2020 Economic & Housing Market Forecast

As we head toward the end of the year, it’s time to recap how the U.S. economy and housing markets performed this year and offer my predictions for 2020.

 

U.S. Economy

In general, the economy performed pretty much as I expected this year: job growth slowed but the unemployment rate still hovers around levels not seen since the late 1960s.

Following the significant drop in corporate tax rates in January 2018, economic growth experience a big jump. However, we haven’t been able to continue those gains and I doubt we’ll return to 2%+ growth next year. Due to this slowing, I expect GDP to come in at only +1.4% next year. Non-residential fixed investment has started to wane as companies try to anticipate where economic policy will move next year. Furthermore, many businesses remain concerned over ongoing trade issues with China.

In 2020, I expect payrolls to continue growing, but the rate of growth will slow as the country adds fewer than 1.7 million new jobs. Due to this hiring slow down, the unemployment rate will start to rise, but still end the year at a very respectable 4.1%.

Many economists, including me, spent much of 2019 worried about the specter of a looming recession in 2020. Thankfully, such fears have started to wane (at least for now).

Despite some concerning signs, the likelihood that we will enter a recession in 2020 has dropped to about 26%. If we manage to stave off a recession in 2020, the possibility of a slowdown in 2021 is around 74%. That said, I fully expect that any drop in growth will be mild and will not negatively affect the U.S. housing market.

 

Existing Homes

As I write this article, full-year data has yet to be released. However, I feel confident that 2019 will end with a slight rise in home sales. For 2020, I expect sales to rise around 2.9% to just over 5.5 million units.

Home prices next year will continue to rise as mortgage rates remain very competitive. Look for prices to increase 3.8% in 2020 as demand continues to exceed supply and more first-time buyers enter the market.

In the year ahead, I expect the share of first-time buyers to grow, making them a very significant component of the housing market. 

 

New Homes

The new-home market has been pretty disappointing for most of the year due to significant obstacles preventing builders from building. Land prices, labor and material costs, and regulatory fees make it very hard for builders to produce affordable housing. As a result, many are still focused on the luxury market where there are profits to be made, despite high demand from entry-level buyers.

Builders are aware of this and are doing their best to deliver more affordable product. As such, I believe single-family housing starts will rise next year to 942,000 units—an increase of 6.8% over 2019 and the highest number since 2007.

As the market starts to deliver more units, sales will rise just over 5%, but the increase in sales will be due to lower priced housing. Accordingly, new home prices are set to rise just 2.5% next year.

 

Mortgage Rates

Next year will still be very positive from a home-financing perspective, with the average rate for a 30-year conventional, fixed-rate mortgage averaging under 4%. That said, if there are significant improvements in trade issues with China, this forecast may change, but not significantly.

 

Conclusion

In this coming year, affordability issues will persist in many markets around the country, such as San Francisco; Los Angeles; San Jose; Seattle; and Bend, Oregon. The market will also continue to favor home sellers, but we will start to move more toward balance, resulting in another positive year overall for U.S. housing. 

 

 

About Matthew Gardner:

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

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Job News

There is an abundance of great news when it comes to employment in Colorado.

The unemployment rate is incredibly low at 2.7% which is almost a full percentage point lower than the U.S. average.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Metro Denver added 28,300 jobs over the last year which ranks 15th out of all metropolitan areas nation-wide, many of which have much larger populations than Denver.

While this is positive news, what is even more remarkable is what is happening in the other, smaller cities along the Front Range.

Anytime job growth exceeds 2.0% per year, it is a sign of a very healthy economy.  Here is what the other Cities have seen in terms of job growth over the last 12 months. 

·         Fort Collins 2.6%

·         Greeley 2.5%

·         Colorado Springs 1.9%

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