Housing Math

It’s interesting to look at what population growth means for housing.

 

On average, along the Front Range, 2.5 people live in each housing unit.

 

What that means is 4 housing units are needed for every 10 people who live here.

 

So, for every 1000 new people moving to our area, 400 new housing units are required.

 

The population of Metro Denver is just under 3,000,000 and the population of Northern Colorado is just over 650,000.

 

Assuming the Front Range grows in population at 2% per year, that means 60,000 new people in Metro Denver and 13,000 new people in Northern Colorado each year.

 

To house those people, 24,000 new housing units need to be built per year in Metro Denver and 5,200 in Northern Colorado.

At Windermere Real Estate we are taking Safer at Home and Social Distancing very seriously.  Our people are following our Safe Showings protocol, staying connected to their clients, and providing help wherever needed

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Caught Up

We’ve been waiting for June to catch up.  It finally happened (almost).

 

Back in April, real estate activity was significantly limited and the showing of property was restricted which caused the number of closed properties in May and early June to be much lower than last year.

 

Bottom line, fewer properties going under contract in April caused fewer closings 30 to 45 days later.

 

Closed properties in May were down compared to 2019 by 44% in Northern Colorado and 43% in Metro Denver.

 

Then activity jumped significantly in May.  The number of properties going under contract was way up compared to last year.

 

We’ve been wondering when we would see this sales activity reflected in the number of closed properties.

 

Well, it finally happened (almost).

 

The number of closings so far in June compared to the same time period through June of 2019 is only down 1.8% in Northern Colorado and 1.6% in Metro Denver.

 

In both markets, there are only a handful of closings separating activity in June 2020 versus June 2019.

 

By the end of the month, when all the transactions are tallied up, we expect that June of this year will out pace June of last year in terms of number of transactions.

 

This is significant not only because of COVID-19, but also because of the reduced inventory compared to last year.  Quite simply, there are fewer homes to buy.

 

All of this speaks to the health and resiliency of the Front Range market.

At Windermere Real Estate we are taking Safer at Home and Social Distancing very seriously.  Our people are following our Safe Showings protocol, staying connected to their clients, and providing help wherever needed

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Tight Inventory

The numbers that we find to be most interesting right now are all related to inventory.

 

Long story short, inventory is tight.

 

It was already tight pre-coronavirus and now it’s even tighter.

 

Here are the numbers.

 

Active properties for sale versus one year ago are down:

  • 11% in Larimer County
  • 20% in Weld County
  • 26% in Metro Denver

 

This low inventory is one of several reasons that prices are generally still up across the Front Range.

 

At Windermere Real Estate we are taking Safer at Home and Social Distancing very seriously.  Our people are following our Safe Showings protocol, staying connected to their clients, and providing help wherever needed

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Special Event

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On Wednesday April 22nd you are invited to a special online event with Windermere’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner.

He will be giving his insights into the U.S. economy and what that means for real estate along the Front Range of Colorado.

You will hear the answers to the biggest questions we are hearing from clients now like “do you think housing prices will crash?”

This event is exclusively for clients and friends of Windermere Real Estate. To receive the registration link simply reply to this email or reach out to your Windermere real estate broker.

Many of you have heard Matthew speak at our Market Forecast events we hold each year in January. He is famous for making complex economic dynamics very simple to understand.

You will get useful and valuable information which will give you clarity about where the market is headed and when we can expect the economy to improve.

For example Matthew predicts unemployment to hit 15% by the end of June, but then to improve to 8% by year-end and 6% by this time next year.

Again, if you would like the link just reply to this email or reach out to your Windermere broker.

At Windermere Real Estate we are taking Shelter in Place and Social Distancing very seriously.  Our people are working at home, staying connected to their clients, and providing help wherever needed.

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Millennial Buyers

Millennials often get a bad rap.  One of the myths about Millennials is that they don’t own homes and will be renters forever.

Not true!  Especially on the Front Range of Colorado.

Based on research by our very own Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, Millennials make up a significant percentage of all home buyers in Metro Denver and Colorado.

In Metro Denver, 50% of all buyers last year were in the Millennial demographic.

In Northern Colorado, the number is 41%.

It turns out that Millennials, as they move into their mid to late 30’s, see the value of home ownership and are at the point in their lives where it makes sense to own instead of rent.

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A Closing Window

For home sellers who would like to move to a new home this year, there is a window of time that is closing as we head into the Fall months.

 

Most people know that the Spring and Summer are the most active months for real estate and that activity trails off into the Fall and Winter.

Here are the specific numbers behind this…

The number of homes sold along the Front Range in November tends to be between 15% and 29% lower than September.

That means the best window of time for current sellers to obtain a contract from a buyer and close by the end of the year will occur over the next 45 days.

For sellers who have homes on the market today, it is time to ensure that:

  • The home is priced right versus the competition
  • All of the marketing elements are in place
  • It is easy for a buyer to make an offer on the home

 

 

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Compound Effect

If you have driven on I-25 lately you may have noticed that the Front Range is a popular place.

The projections show that it will only get more popular in the future.

Today, 4.8 million people live along the Front Range from Fort Collins down to Pueblo.

In 2030, just 11 short years from now, 5.7 million people will live here. Yes, that’s almost 1 million more than today.

This is all according to the Colorado State Demographers Office.

While this seems like a big increase, keep in mind that this assumes that population growth occurs at a fairly modest 1.7% per year.

It seems that our state will continue to grow and there will continue to be a demand for housing.

 

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Tax Time

Property owners all over Colorado have a gift waiting for them in their mailbox- their new property tax notifications.

Every two years, each county in Colorado places a new value on property for property tax purposes.

No surprise, values were up along the Front Range.

Here is the percentage of increase for various Colorado counties (keep in mind that this increase is for two years):

  • Adams 24%
  • Arapahoe 22%
  • Larimer 19%
  • Douglas 14%
  • Jefferson 14%
  • Boulder 12%

If you have questions about how to respond to your tax notification, we can help!  We would be happy to provide you with an up-to-date market analysis and walk you through the steps on how to protest your new value if you don’t agree with it.

 

You can also watch this webinar we put together which shows you everything you need to know about your new property valuation and how to respond. 

You can watch it HERE.

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Get Real

We’ve seen some headlines recently that suggest home prices along the Front Range have peaked and are starting to decline.

When we dig in and do the research, this is what we find…

Home prices are still going up, just not as fast as they have been.

We’ve known that the double-digit appreciation that we’ve seen for the last several years could not be sustained and we expected the pace of appreciation to slow down.

So far in 2019, this is the case.  Prices still going up, just not as fast.

It’s like running up stairs.  Eventually you will get tired and you will need to start walking (but you’re still going up).

Headlines that suggest that prices have peaked and are falling create unrealistic expectations for buyers and give sellers a skewed perspective on the market.

Here are the numbers…

Average Price:

  • Up 1.53% in Metro Denver
  • Up 6.1% in Larimer County
  • Up 5.1% in Weld County

Months of Inventory:

  • 5 Months in Metro Denver
  • 5 Months in Larimer County
  • 4 Months in Weld County
  • (Remember that 4-6 months of inventory represents a balanced market)

There has been an increase in Days on Market which means that homes are taking longer to sell.  But the increase is measured in days, not months.

Here are those numbers…

Days on Market:

  • Up 4 Days in Metro Denver
  • Up 11 Days in Larimer County
  • Up 3 Days in Weld County

So, be mindful of headlines that can be sensationalized and might suggest that the market is falling.

Bottom line, the market is going up, just not as fast as it was.

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Condo Cyclone

 

 

While the “Bomb Cyclone” closed roads and schools over the last two days, the “Condo Cyclone” is opening new opportunities for first-time buyers.

 

What’s the “Condo Cyclone” you ask. It’s the proliferation of multi-family inventory that has come on the market up and down the Front Range.

Compared to last year, multi-family inventory which includes town-homes and condominiums, has increased…

 

• 79% in Metro Denver
• 34% in Larimer County
• 45% in Weld County

 

This is terrific news for the market overall, as inventory has been unusually low for several months. It’s especially terrific news for first-time buyers who need this type of product as a stepping stone to home ownership.

 

What we notice is a $170,000 to $130,000 difference in average price between a single-family home and a multi-family home in Front Range markets.

 

Specifically, here’s the spread between multi-family and single-family average price:

• $349,801 vs. $512,312 in Metro Denver
• $312,493 vs. $469,294 in Larimer County
• $237,645 vs. $370,027 in Weld County

 

So as we dig out from the “Bomb Cyclone” we can be happy for the “Condo Cyclone” which brings more affordability and opportunity to our markets!

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