Q1 2022 Colorado Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of select counties of the Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

 

Regional Economic Overview

The most recent jobs data showed that by February of this year Colorado had recouped all of the more than 375,000 jobs that were shed due to the pandemic and had added an additional 6,000 positions. The recovery in employment was faster than I had expected, which has led me to revise my 2022 forecast: I now predict that the Colorado job market will increase by 4% this year and will add more than 112,000 new jobs. The state unemployment rate in February was 4%, which is well below the pandemic peak of 11.8% but still above the 2.6% average in 2019. Regionally, unemployment rates ranged from a low of 3.1% in Boulder to a high of 4% in the Colorado Springs and Greeley metropolitan areas.

Colorado Home Sales

❱ In the first quarter of the year, 8,178 homes sold, representing a drop of 6.3% compared to the same period a year ago and 30% lower than in the fourth quarter of 2021.

❱ Sales increased in 4 of the 12 counties covered by this report but fell in the balance of the market areas.

❱ Similar to last quarter, low inventory levels continue to constrict sales. Listing activity was 17.3% lower than the same period in 2021 and 29.5% lower than in the fourth quarter of 2021.

❱ Pending sales, which are an indicator of future closings, also declined, though the drop of 4.3% is not that significant. That said, unless we see a surge in inventory levels in the spring, second quarter sales may also be light.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sales for various counties in Colorado between Q1 2021 and Q1 2022.

Colorado Home Prices

❱ With limited inventory and rising mortgage rates, buyers were motivated, as demonstrated by the 14.9% increase in average prices compared to a year ago. Home prices in first quarter averaged $637,963, which is 4.5% higher than last quarter.

❱ Boulder County continues to see average sale prices holding above $1 million. Although we have seen some softening in list prices, I expect this market to remain above the $1 million mark as we move through the year.

❱ Year over year, prices rose by double-digits across all markets covered by this report, with a huge jump in the small Gilpin market.

❱ With little in the way of choice for buyers—as well as a “fear of missing out” given rising mortgage rates—it’s no surprise there was such solid price appreciation. That said, there is normally a lag between rising rates and any impact on home prices. The second quarter should indicate if the jump in rates has had a softening effect on price growth.

A map showing the year-over-year real estate market percentage changes in various counties in Colorado for Q1 2022.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices for various counties in Colorado from Q1 2021 to Q1 2022.

Mortgage Rates

Average rates for a 30-year conforming mortgage were 3.11% at the end of 2021, but since then have jumped over 1.5%—the largest increase since 1987. The surge in rates is because the market is anticipating a seven- to eight-point increase from the Federal Reserve later this year.

Because the mortgage market has priced this into the rates they are offering today, my forecast suggests that we are getting close to a ceiling in rates, and it is my belief that they will rise modestly in the second quarter before stabilizing for the balance of the year.

A bar graph showing the average rates for a 30-year conforming mortgage, plus Matthew Gardner's mortgage rate forecasts for Q2 2022 through Q1 2023.

Colorado Days on Market

❱ The average number of days it took to sell a home in the markets contained in this report fell four days compared to the first quarter of 2021.

❱ The length of time it took to sell a home dropped in every county other than Gilpin compared to the same quarter a year ago.

❱ It took an average of only 21 days to sell a home in the region, matching the previous quarter.

❱ Compared to the final quarter of 2021, average market time fell in Clear Creek, Adams, Denver, Jefferson, and Arapahoe counties, but rose in the balance of the markets contained in this report.

A bar graph showing the average days on market for homes in various counties in Colorado during Q1 2022.

Conclusions

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

With Colorado on solid economic footing, I expect housing demand to remain strong even in the face of rising financing costs. Inventory levels remain very low, and new home construction has not expanded enough to meet demand, which continues to put upward price pressure on resale homes. The market appears to have shrugged off the jump in mortgage rates in the first quarter, but the full effects won’t be felt until later this spring. We’ll have to wait and see what impact, if any, there will be, but data on listing prices shows that home sellers remain bullish.

A speedometer graph indicating a seller's market in Colorado during Q1 2022.

Given all these factors, I am leaving the needle in the same position as last quarter. The market clearly still favors sellers, but we need a few more months of information to determine how rising mortgage rates may impact home sales and/ or prices.

About Matthew Gardner

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

The post Q1 2022 Colorado Real Estate Market Update appeared first on Fort Collins Real Estate | Fort Collins Homes for Sale & Property Search.

Q4 2021 Colorado Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

 

Regional Economic Overview

Following a decent summer when Colorado added around 14,000 jobs each month, the pace of recovery has slowed. That said, the latest data shows that more than 320,000 of the 376,000 jobs shed due to the pandemic have now returned. The state still needs to add a little more than 54,000 jobs in order to get back to pre-pandemic employment levels. Even though there has been a slowdown in the job recovery, which is likely due to the rise of new COVID-19 variants, I am still forecasting the state will return to its prior employment peak by the end of the summer. As jobs return, the employment rate continues to drop; it was 5.1% in November, well below the pandemic peak of 12.1%. Although it would be nice to see a lower rate, more people have returned to the workforce and are actively looking for work, which can stall job growth rates. From a regional perspective, unemployment levels range from a low of 3.8% in Boulder, to a high of 5.2% in Grand Junction.

 

Colorado Home Sales

❱ In the final quarter of the year, 11,714 homes sold, representing a drop of 5.3% compared to the fourth quarter of 2020 and a drop of 17.6% compared to the third quarter of the year.

❱ While sales slowed region-wide, 4 of the 12 counties included in this report actually experienced significant sales increases.

❱ I’m not concerned that sales slowed compared to third quarter, as seasonal factors were likely the cause. It’s also likely that the year-over-year decline was due to the fact that there were 30% fewer homes for sale in the fourth quarter of 2021 than there were the previous year.

❱ Pending sales, which are an indicator of future closings, fell 29% compared to the third quarter, suggesting that closings in the first quarter of 2022 may also be light.

 

 

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sales for various counties in Colorado during the fourth quarter of 2021.

 

Colorado Home Prices

A map showing the real estate market percentage changes in various counties in Colorado during the fourth quarter of 2021.

 

❱ The pace of home-price growth continued to slow, albeit modestly. The average sale price rose 14.8% year over year, to an average of $610,275. Prices also rose .8% from the previous quarter.

❱ Boulder County’s price growth was noteworthy, but of even greater interest was that average sale prices are holding above the $1 million ceiling.

❱ Year-over-year, prices rose across all markets covered by this report, with double-digit gains in all but three counties.

❱ The number of homes for sale remains woefully low in most areas, which continues to put upward pressure on home prices. That said, the pace of appreciation slowed through most of 2021. This trend is likely to continue in 2022.

 

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices for various counties in Colorado during the fourth quarter of 2021.

 

Days on Market

❱ The average number of days it took to sell a home in the markets contained in this report fell five days compared to the final quarter of 2020.

❱ The length of time it took to sell a home dropped in every county other than Clear Creek County compared to the same quarter a year ago.

❱ It took an average of only 21 days to sell a home in the region. Although the pace dropped year over year, it rose 9 days compared to the previous quarter.

❱ Ongoing supply limitations and strong demand have caused the pace of sales to remain brisk. That said, the length of time it took to sell a home rose compared to the third quarter. I don’t think this is a major concern and can likely be attributed to seasonal factors.

 

A bar graph showing the average days on market for homes in various counties in Colorado during the fourth quarter of 2021.

Conclusions

A speedometer graph indicating a seller's market in Colorado during the fourth quarter of 2021.

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

Inventory is still lacking, which is causing prices to rise at well-above-average rates. That said, despite how few homes are for sale, the pace of appreciation has been slowing and will likely continue to do so as mortgage rates climb.

My current forecast is for 30-year rates to stairstep higher as we move through the year, which will act as a headwind to price growth. Although I do not see rates getting above 4% until 2023, the increase in borrowing costs will start to have a greater impact on home prices.

In addition to rising mortgage rates, the significant growth in prices over the past year has started to impact housing affordability. Although the market will continue to perform well, rising financing costs and lower affordability may slowly move the market back toward some sort of balance.

All things considered, I am moving the needle a little toward buyers, but it still heavily favors home sellers.

 

About Matthew Gardner

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

 

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

The post Q4 2021 Colorado Real Estate Market Update appeared first on Fort Collins Real Estate | Fort Collins Homes for Sale & Property Search.

Q3 2021 Colorado Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

 

Regional Economic Overview

The rise in COVID-19 infections due to the Delta variant caused Colorado’s job recovery to slow, but not as much as in many other states. The latest data (for August) shows that more than 293,000 of the 376,000+ jobs that were shed due to COVID-19 have returned. This is good news, with only 83,000 jobs needed to return to pre-pandemic employment levels. The metro areas contained in this report have recovered 243,700 of the 310,000 jobs lost, and I expect the state will recover the remaining jobs by next summer. With employment levels improving, the state unemployment rate currently stands at 5.9%—down from the pandemic peak of 12.1%. Regionally, unemployment levels range from a low of 4.4% in Boulder to a high of 6.1% in Grand Junction.

 

__________

 

Colorado Home Sales

❱ In the third quarter, 14,209 homes sold. This was 6.8% lower than a year ago, but 5.8% higher than the second quarter of 2021.

❱ Compared to a year ago, listing activity was down more than 30%. However, inventory levels were up 38.3% compared to the second quarter of this year, suggesting that buyers have more choice now than they have seen in some time.

❱ Although comparing current sales activity with that of a year ago is not that informative—given that the country was experiencing a massive rebound in housing demand following the outbreak of COVID-19—it was pleasing to see sales up in every county other than Denver and Douglas compared to the second quarter of this year.

❱ Pending sales (an indicator of future closings) were down 5.4% compared to the second quarter of the year, suggesting that closings in the final quarter may well be a little soft.

 

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sales for various counties in Colorado during the third quarter of 2021.

__________

 

Colorado Home Prices

A map showing the real estate market percentage changes in various counties in Colorado during the third quarter of 2021.

❱ Prices continue to appreciate at a very rapid pace, with the average sale price up 15.8% year over year to an average of $605,576. Sale prices were 1.6% lower than in the second quarter of 2021.

❱ Four counties—Arapahoe, Douglas, Weld, and Park—saw the average home sale price pull back between the second quarter and the third, but I am not overly concerned by this at the present time.

❱ Year-over-year, prices rose across all markets covered by this report. All counties except Arapahoe saw double-digit gains, but even that market saw an increase in sale prices.

❱ Several counties are experiencing a drop in average list prices, which is a leading indicator of future activity. As such, I expect to see the rise of sale prices start to slow, which will be a welcome sight for many buyers.

 

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices for various counties in Colorado during the third quarter of 2021.

__________

 

Days on Market

❱ The average number of days it took to sell a home in the markets contained in this report dropped 17 days compared to the third quarter of 2020.

❱ The length of time it took to sell a home dropped in every county contained in this report compared to both the same quarter a year ago and the second quarter of this year.

❱ It took an average of only 12 days to sell a home in the region, which is down 2 days compared to the second quarter of 2021.

❱ The Colorado housing market remains very tight as demonstrated by the fact that it took less than three weeks for homes to sell in all counties contained in this report.

 

A bar graph showing the average days on market for homes in various counties in Colorado during the third quarter of 2021.

__________

 

Conclusions

A speedometer graph indicating a seller's market in Colorado during the third quarter of 2021.

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

The job market continues to improve, which is always a stimulant when it comes to home buying. Inventory levels have improved, and lower pending sales suggest that buyers are taking a little longer to decide on a home. That said, the market is still bullish as indicated by the short length of time it took to sell a home in the quarter. Mortgage rates will start to creep higher as we move into the winter months, and this may stimulate additional buying activity. In the last edition of The Gardner Report, I suggested we would see more homes come to market and that has proven to be accurate. Given these factors, I am moving the needle a little toward buyers, but it remains a staunchly seller’s market.

 

About Matthew Gardner

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

The post Q3 2021 Colorado Real Estate Market Update appeared first on Fort Collins Real Estate | Fort Collins Homes for Sale & Property Search.

Q3 2021 Colorado Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

 

Regional Economic Overview

The rise in COVID-19 infections due to the Delta variant caused Colorado’s job recovery to slow, but not as much as in many other states. The latest data (for August) shows that more than 293,000 of the 376,000+ jobs that were shed due to COVID-19 have returned. This is good news, with only 83,000 jobs needed to return to pre-pandemic employment levels. The metro areas contained in this report have recovered 243,700 of the 310,000 jobs lost, and I expect the state will recover the remaining jobs by next summer. With employment levels improving, the state unemployment rate currently stands at 5.9%—down from the pandemic peak of 12.1%. Regionally, unemployment levels range from a low of 4.4% in Boulder to a high of 6.1% in Grand Junction.

 

__________

 

Colorado Home Sales

❱ In the third quarter, 14,209 homes sold. This was 6.8% lower than a year ago, but 5.8% higher than the second quarter of 2021.

❱ Compared to a year ago, listing activity was down more than 30%. However, inventory levels were up 38.3% compared to the second quarter of this year, suggesting that buyers have more choice now than they have seen in some time.

❱ Although comparing current sales activity with that of a year ago is not that informative—given that the country was experiencing a massive rebound in housing demand following the outbreak of COVID-19—it was pleasing to see sales up in every county other than Denver and Douglas compared to the second quarter of this year.

❱ Pending sales (an indicator of future closings) were down 5.4% compared to the second quarter of the year, suggesting that closings in the final quarter may well be a little soft.

 

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sales for various counties in Colorado during the third quarter of 2021.

__________

 

Colorado Home Prices

A map showing the real estate market percentage changes in various counties in Colorado during the third quarter of 2021.

❱ Prices continue to appreciate at a very rapid pace, with the average sale price up 15.8% year over year to an average of $605,576. Sale prices were 1.6% lower than in the second quarter of 2021.

❱ Four counties—Arapahoe, Douglas, Weld, and Park—saw the average home sale price pull back between the second quarter and the third, but I am not overly concerned by this at the present time.

❱ Year-over-year, prices rose across all markets covered by this report. All counties except Arapahoe saw double-digit gains, but even that market saw an increase in sale prices.

❱ Several counties are experiencing a drop in average list prices, which is a leading indicator of future activity. As such, I expect to see the rise of sale prices start to slow, which will be a welcome sight for many buyers.

 

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices for various counties in Colorado during the third quarter of 2021.

__________

 

Days on Market

❱ The average number of days it took to sell a home in the markets contained in this report dropped 17 days compared to the third quarter of 2020.

❱ The length of time it took to sell a home dropped in every county contained in this report compared to both the same quarter a year ago and the second quarter of this year.

❱ It took an average of only 12 days to sell a home in the region, which is down 2 days compared to the second quarter of 2021.

❱ The Colorado housing market remains very tight as demonstrated by the fact that it took less than three weeks for homes to sell in all counties contained in this report.

 

A bar graph showing the average days on market for homes in various counties in Colorado during the third quarter of 2021.

__________

 

Conclusions

A speedometer graph indicating a seller's market in Colorado during the third quarter of 2021.

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

The job market continues to improve, which is always a stimulant when it comes to home buying. Inventory levels have improved, and lower pending sales suggest that buyers are taking a little longer to decide on a home. That said, the market is still bullish as indicated by the short length of time it took to sell a home in the quarter. Mortgage rates will start to creep higher as we move into the winter months, and this may stimulate additional buying activity. In the last edition of The Gardner Report, I suggested we would see more homes come to market and that has proven to be accurate. Given these factors, I am moving the needle a little toward buyers, but it remains a staunchly seller’s market.

 

About Matthew Gardner

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

The post Q3 2021 Colorado Real Estate Market Update appeared first on Fort Collins Real Estate | Fort Collins Homes for Sale & Property Search.

Q2 2021 Colorado Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

REGIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Although the post COVID-19 job recovery took a step backward last winter, it has since picked up again, which is very pleasing to see. At the end of the second quarter, the state had recovered more than 276,000 of the 376,000+ jobs that were shed due to COVID-19. Even though employment levels are still almost 100,000 lower than the pre-pandemic peak, they are heading in the right direction. Looking at the markets contained in this report, current employment levels in Colorado Springs are only 2.2% below the pre-pandemic peak, followed by Denver and Fort Collins, which are both down 3.6% from the 2020 peak. I would add that all markets showed jobs continuing to return. With total employment levels rising, the unemployment rate stands at 6.2%, down from the pandemic peak of 12.1%. Regionally, unemployment levels range from a low of 4.8% in Boulder to a high of 6.3% in Grand Junction. COVID-19 infection rates dropped during the quarter, which is certain to lead to employment levels continuing to rise unless we see another significant increase in infection rates due to the rise of new variants across the country.

 

COLORADO HOME SALES

❱ The late spring/early summer market was a good one for home sales, which were up 33.9% from a year ago. Comparing the current quarter to a period when COVID-19 was widespread is not that informative, but, with sales up more than 55% from the first quarter of this year, the market appears to be very buoyant.

❱ Sales were higher in all counties other than the very small Clear Creek County. Where sales rose, they did so at double-digit rates in all markets other than Weld.

❱ During the second quarter, 13,428 homes sold. This is very impressive but not overly surprising, given that the average number of homes for sale was up 45% from the first quarter.

❱ Another positive was that pending sales, which are an indicator of future closings, were 42.8% higher than in the first quarter. This suggests that closings next quarter should be positive as well.

 

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sales for various counties in Colorado.

 

COLORADO HOME PRICES

A map showing the real estate market percentage changes in various counties in Colorado.

❱ Prices continue to appreciate at an impressive pace, recording an increase of 28.1% year over year to an average of $615,409. Home prices were also 10.7% higher than the first quarter of this year.

❱ Buyer demand remains very strong, likely exacerbated by the drop in mortgage rates in the second quarter and improving levels of inventory.

❱ Year-over-year, prices rose across all markets covered by this report, with the exception of Clear Creek County. Of the markets that saw prices rise, all did so by double digits, with very notable gains in Boulder, Gilpin, and Park counties.

❱ Affordability levels continue to trouble me, and the pace of price appreciation has to slow at some point. The market is clearly still out of balance, but as long as the credit quality of buyers remains high, I do not see any cause for concern.

 

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices for various counties is Colorado.

 

DAYS ON MARKET

❱ The average number of days it took to sell a home in the markets contained in this report dropped 14 days compared to the second quarter of 2020.

❱ The amount of time it took to sell a home dropped in every county contained in this report compared to the second quarter of 2020. The exception was Gilpin County, where it rose by only two days.

❱ It took an average of only 14 days to sell a home in the region, which is down 11 days compared to the first quarter of this year.

❱ The Colorado housing market remains very tight, as demonstrated by the fact that it took less than a month for homes to sell in every county other than one.

 

A bar graph showing the average days on market for homes in various counties in Colorado.

CONCLUSIONS

A speedometer graph indicating a seller's market in Colorado.

 

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

Sales rose on the back of lower mortgage rates and higher levels of homes available to buy. Although this should signify a move back to a more balanced market, we are not there yet as price growth remains well above the long-term average.

With solid demand and favorable financing rates, the market is expected to remain active as we move through the balance of the year. That said, housing affordability is becoming an increasingly large concern. According to the Colorado Association of REALTORS®, statewide affordability for single-family homes has dropped almost 20% year-over-year and is down 17.8% for multi-family homes.

At some point, an affordability ceiling will be reached, which will slow home-price appreciation—but not yet. As such, I am moving the needle a little more in favor of home sellers, as they remain in the driver’s seat, for now.

 

ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

The post Q2 2021 Colorado Real Estate Market Update appeared first on Fort Collins Real Estate | Fort Collins Homes for Sale & Property Search.