Been a Long Time

Highlighting that inventory has been very low for a very long time is the fact that the number of homes available in Northern Colorado today most closely resembles 2015.

It has been almost 10 years since buyers have had the selection that they have now.

Even though inventory is up over last year, and way up since 2021, it is still only half of the long-term average.

So, buyers can enjoy increased selection and sellers can enjoy limited competition.

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Five by Five

Here’s a fun fact about the current inventory along the Front Range.

The number of properties for sale is five times as many versus the all-time low in 2022.

And, it is one-fifth as many compared to the all-time high in 2006.

Also, it is half of the long-term average.

So, selection is much higher than the frenzied 2021/2022 market.

However, inventory is still very low relatively speaking.

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Leap Year

The statistic that is leaping so far in 2024 is inventory.

Northern Colorado is seeing a big uptick in number of homes for sale.

However, it is not an alarming amount and is still a ‘Seller’s Market’ by definition.

Larimer County inventory is up 39% and Weld County is up 48%.

Months of inventory is up to 2.3 in Larimer County from 1.7 months a year ago.

Weld County is also at 2.3 months today and was only 1.2 months a year ago.

With higher inventory comes more selection for buyers and more importance for sellers to price right.

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Leap Year

The statistic that is leaping so far in 2024 is inventory.

Northern Colorado is seeing a big uptick in number of homes for sale.

However, it is not an alarming amount and is still a ‘Seller’s Market’ by definition.

Larimer County inventory is up 39% and Weld County is up 48%.

Months of inventory is up to 2.3 in Larimer County from 1.7 months a year ago.

Weld County is also at 2.3 months today and was only 1.2 months a year ago.

With higher inventory comes more selection for buyers and more importance for sellers to price right.

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Inventory Jump

The most significant trend we notice 45 days into the new year is the jump in inventory.

There are many more properties for sale along the Front Range compared to one year ago.

  • Larimer County is up 40%
  • Weld County is up 39%
  • Metro Denver is up 35%

This comes as welcome news for buyers as we near the Spring buying season.

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Inventory Jump

The most significant trend we notice 45 days into the new year is the jump in inventory.

There are many more properties for sale along the Front Range compared to one year ago.

  • Larimer County is up 40%
  • Weld County is up 39%
  • Metro Denver is up 35%

This comes as welcome news for buyers as we near the Spring buying season.

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Forecast Takeaways

Here are some of the big takeaways from our annual Market Forecast with Economist Matthew Gardner:

  • Interest rates will continue to trend down during the year and reach 6.08% by the end of 2024.
  • Home prices will have another year of modest gains increasing 2.0% to 2.5% in Northern Colorado
  • 53% of homeowners in Larimer County and 38% of homeowners in Weld County are “Equity Rich” meaning that they have at least 50% equity in their homes.
  • Inventory levels will increase in 2024 but will remain below normal which protects prices from any sort of major decline

To receive a copy of the full slide deck from the Forecast, feel free to reach out to us!

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Inventory in Perspective

A significant dynamic in the Front Range market is the relatively low inventory. This is the main reason why prices are stable despite higher rates.

Here is some perspective on the inventory of homes for sale to help give some context.

Today’s inventory is:

  • Half of the long-term average going back 30 years
  • ¼ of the all-time high in 2006
  • 3 times the all-time low of 2021

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MOI is Still LOW

Despite decreased buyer activity driven by normal seasonal patterns plus higher interest rates, the key stat of Months of Inventory continues to stay relatively low.

Months of Inventory (MOI) is the simple measurement of how long it would take to sell the current inventory of homes for sale at the current pace of sales.

Along the Front Range, this stat ranges from roughly 2 ½ months to just over 3. A market is considered ‘balanced’ when there is 4 to 6 months of inventory for sale.

Here are the specific numbers for Front Range markets:

Larimer County = 3.1 Months

Weld County = 2.7 Months

Metro Denver = 2.4 Months

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Jump to Three

The most notable change in the market, in terms of a specific statistic, is months of inventory.

This statistic measures how long it would take to sell all of the current inventory at the current pace of sales.

Months of inventory has jumped to three along the Front Range.

One year ago, it was two months. Two years ago, it was three weeks.

The jump is a result of decreased demand driven by higher interest rates combined with slightly increasing inventory.

We expect months of inventory to continue to increase and imagine it could be at four months by this winter.

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