Top Three

Here are the top three reasons why prices are unlikely to crash even though the market has cooled off:

  1. Inventory – Ultimately, prices are driven by supply and demand.  Although supply has increased, it still remains relatively low with less than two months’ supply in most areas.
  2. New Homes – New home construction still lags behind the demand stemming from population growth.  New home starts today are roughly 2/3 of what they were in 2005.
  3. Credit – Home buyers today are highly qualified which protects the market from a glut of ‘distressed’ properties hitting the market in an economic downturn.  The average credit score of buyers is now 776 which, by definition, is ‘excellent.’   Only 2% of loans today are given to buyers with scores under 640 whereas in 2001 25% of buyers had that low of a score.

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Top Three

Here are the top three reasons why prices are unlikely to crash even though the market has cooled off:

  1. Inventory – Ultimately, prices are driven by supply and demand.  Although supply has increased, it still remains relatively low with less than two months’ supply in most areas.
  2. New Homes – New home construction still lags behind the demand stemming from population growth.  New home starts today are roughly 2/3 of what they were in 2005.
  3. Credit – Home buyers today are highly qualified which protects the market from a glut of ‘distressed’ properties hitting the market in an economic downturn.  The average credit score of buyers is now 776 which, by definition, is ‘excellent.’   Only 2% of loans today are given to buyers with scores under 640 whereas in 2001 25% of buyers had that low of a score.

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Prices Still Up

Prices Still Up

It seems that COVID-19 did not cause prices to decrease and certainly didn’t cause them to crash.

Average prices are up compared to last year:

·         2.8% in Larimer County

·         5.4% in Weld County

·         3.3% in Metro Denver

Low supply, sustained demand, and incredibly low interest rates are all fueling the price growth.

 

At Windermere Real Estate we are taking Safer at Home and Social Distancing very seriously.  Our people are following our Safe Showings protocol, staying connected to their clients, and providing help wherever needed.

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Bubble Burst

Every so often we will hear a concern that another housing bubble is forming.

To help answer that question it’s valuable to look at the reasons that caused the last one.

There were three main drivers of the bubble that burst in 2008:

  1. Easy Credit – loans were very easy to attain
  2. Over-Leverage – people were using their homes at ATM’s
  3. Over-Supply – too many new homes were being built

Now, let’s compare that to today:

  1. Stricter Credit – the average home buyer today has a FICO score of 755
  2. High Equity – collectively, U.S. homeowners have $19 Trillion of equity in their homes and collective mortgage debt has not increased for 13 years
  3. Under-Supply – today we are building only two-thirds of the new homes being built in 2004 yet the population is much higher

Given this healthy information, we don’t see another housing bubble forming today.

If you would like to see a video recap of our annual Market Forecast you can watch that HERE.

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Supply and Demand

Northern Colorado gave us a real-life economics lesson in January 2020.

Compared to one year ago…

  • Inventory was down 10% (Supply)
  • Homes under contract went up 31% (Demand)
  • Prices were up 5% (Result)

 

If you would like to see a video recap of our annual Market Forecast you can watch that HERE.

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