In Perspective

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Let’s put today’s home prices in perspective.

Appreciation has been significant over the last 18 months. Some people are wondering if it can last and if there might be a housing bubble.

There are two ways to look at prices. One way is in absolute terms. This is simply looking at the dollar amount a home would sell for at some point in the past versus the dollar amount it would sell for.

The other way is in real terms. ‘Real’ is an economics term which means that inflation is factored into the valuation.

For example, a gallon of milk costs more today in absolute terms than it did 15 years ago. However, in real terms, the cost is about the same as 15 years ago because inflation is factored in. The price of milk has essentially escalated at the same rate as inflation.

So, how about home prices? As we know, prices in absolute terms are higher than 15 years ago. To be exact, prices are 43% higher Nationally compared to 2006 according to Case-Shiller.

However, in real terms, prices are the same as 2006.

Over the last 15 years, homes have appreciated at essentially the same rate as inflation.

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In Perspective

/in , , , , , , , , , , /by

Let’s put today’s home prices in perspective.

Appreciation has been significant over the last 18 months. Some people are wondering if it can last and if there might be a housing bubble.

There are two ways to look at prices. One way is in absolute terms. This is simply looking at the dollar amount a home would sell for at some point in the past versus the dollar amount it would sell for.

The other way is in real terms. ‘Real’ is an economics term which means that inflation is factored into the valuation.

For example, a gallon of milk costs more today in absolute terms than it did 15 years ago. However, in real terms, the cost is about the same as 15 years ago because inflation is factored in. The price of milk has essentially escalated at the same rate as inflation.

So, how about home prices? As we know, prices in absolute terms are higher than 15 years ago. To be exact, prices are 43% higher Nationally compared to 2006 according to Case-Shiller.

However, in real terms, prices are the same as 2006.

Over the last 15 years, homes have appreciated at essentially the same rate as inflation.

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No Inventory?

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One misconception about today’s market is that there is ‘no inventory.’

Actually, there are numerous new listings that hit the market each month. It just so happens that they tend to sell quickly.

The numbers show the number of new listings that came on the market in September closely equate to the number of sales that occurred.

  •  In Larimer County, 693 new residential listings hit the market last month and there were 688 sales.
  •  In Weld County, there were 681 new listings and 733 sales.
  •  In Metro Denver, there were 6125 new listings and 5233 sales.

So, while homes tend to sell quickly today, there is still a significant amount of new inventory hitting the market each month for buyers to consider.

The post No Inventory? appeared first on Fort Collins Real Estate | Fort Collins Homes for Sale & Property Search.

No Inventory?

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One misconception about today’s market is that there is ‘no inventory.’

Actually, there are numerous new listings that hit the market each month. It just so happens that they tend to sell quickly.

The numbers show the number of new listings that came on the market in September closely equate to the number of sales that occurred.

  •  In Larimer County, 693 new residential listings hit the market last month and there were 688 sales.
  •  In Weld County, there were 681 new listings and 733 sales.
  •  In Metro Denver, there were 6125 new listings and 5233 sales.

So, while homes tend to sell quickly today, there is still a significant amount of new inventory hitting the market each month for buyers to consider.

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Slight Increase

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A review of the September market stats shows a slight increase in inventory along the Front Range.

The way we currently measure inventory is in days.

Meaning, at the current pace of sales, how many days would it take to sell all of the inventory currently for sale.

The results, based on September’s activity, shows only a slight increase compared to August. This increase can be tied to seasonality as we always experience a slight cooling off of the market heading into the Fall.

Here is what the residential inventory looks like in each of our markets:

  •  Larimer County = 25 days
  • Weld County = 23 days
  • Metro Denver = 21 days

Bottom line, the residential market is still very healthy.

The post Slight Increase appeared first on Fort Collins Real Estate | Fort Collins Homes for Sale & Property Search.

Slight Increase

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A review of the September market stats shows a slight increase in inventory along the Front Range.

The way we currently measure inventory is in days.

Meaning, at the current pace of sales, how many days would it take to sell all of the inventory currently for sale.

The results, based on September’s activity, shows only a slight increase compared to August. This increase can be tied to seasonality as we always experience a slight cooling off of the market heading into the Fall.

Here is what the residential inventory looks like in each of our markets:

  •  Larimer County = 25 days
  • Weld County = 23 days
  • Metro Denver = 21 days

Bottom line, the residential market is still very healthy.

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With a “T”

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One of the reasons we are so confident about the long-term health of the market is because of the equity that exists in peoples’ homes today.

Because there is so much equity, there are very few homeowners who are ‘underwater’ with a loan that is more than the actual value of the property.

According to the latest ‘Homeowner Equity Insights’ report from CoreLogic, only 2.3% of all homes are ‘underwater’ with negative equity.

To put that in perspective, in the fourth quarter of 2009, 26% of all mortgaged properties had negative equity.

Nationally, homeowner equity has increased by $2.9 Trillion during the last 12 months (that’s Trillion with a ‘T’)!

Locally, only 1.4% of Colorado mortgage holders have negative equity, which is one of the lowest rates in the Country.

What this all means is very, very few distressed sales and overall health in the real estate market.

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Lower Lumber

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Lumber prices are becoming more normal again.

After soaring this Spring to record levels, they have lowered back to near pre-pandemic levels.

The current price for 1000 board feet of lumber is $577.  This is 62% below the price this past May when it reached an all-time high of $1,515.

In the years leading up to the pandemic, prices tended to be between $350 and $500.

While this is great news for consumers and home builders, the prices aren’t drastically lower yet in the lumber aisle at your local bib-box hardware store.

This is because many retailers are still selling through their inventory of lumber which they purchased at higher prices.

However, for the long term, home buyers will benefit from the more normal lumber prices that now exist in the market.

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Tracking Change

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The market is changing. The change is slight, not drastic.

Both potential sellers and potential buyers need to know that the pace of the market has slowed since the Spring.

Here is one way we track this change…

A review of the August numbers shows the pace of sales in each of our Front Range markets:

  •  Larimer County = 18 closings per day
  • Weld County = 16 closings per day
  • Metro Denver = 165 closings per day

Based on the pace of sales, we can determine the inventory of current homes for sale measured in days:

  • Larimer County = 24 days of inventory
  • Weld County = 23 days of inventory
  • Metro Denver = 18 days of inventory

Then we can measure the increase in days of inventory versus April of this year:

  • Larimer County = 26% increase
  • Weld County = 15% increase
  • Metro Denver = 20% increase

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Population Math

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The brand new Census data has just been released and it is fascinating!

Colorado’s population now sits just below 6 million people at 5.773 million.  Just 20 years ago it was 4.301 million.

Northern Colorado is booming and now has 688,047 in Larimer and Weld Counties.  It grew by 135,592 people in just ten years.  If Northern Colorado grows at just 2% per year, it will have 838,725 people by 2030 and 1,022,402 by 2040.  

For several years we have been predicting that Northern Colorado would exceed by 1 million people by 2040 and it looks like that will come true.

Metro Denver is also booming.  For reference, we define ‘Metro Denver’ as Adams, Arapahoe, Denver, Douglas, and Jefferson Counties.

Population in Metro Denver is now 2.831 million and was 2.109 million in the year 2000.  It has grown by 722,000 people in 20 years.

If Metro Denver grows at 2% per year, it will hit 3.451 million in 10 years and 4.206 million in 20 years.

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