Halfway Check

This is a market which is changing quickly.  We are studying the numbers every day so we can be clear about where the market is heading.

Here is a check on the market halfway through October.

Compared to last October…

  • Available inventory is up 73% in Northern Colorado and up 112% in Metro Denver.  This is significant for buyers who, for years, were challenged with limited selection.
  • Number of closed transactions is down 50% in Northern Colorado and 41% in Metro Denver.  This reflects the fact that fewer buyers are active right now given higher interest rates.

Prices continue to be higher than last year.  They are up 12% in Northern Colorado and 13% in Metro Denver.  We don’t expect double-digit increases to continue, but don’t expect anything like a price crash.

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Toward Balance

Our market is moving toward a balanced market, but it is still unbalanced.

By definition, a balanced market has between 4 and 6 months of inventory for sale.

Today there is essentially two months.  One year ago, there was only 3 weeks of inventory.

It has actually been 16 years since the market has been in balance.

So, while we still have a ways to go before it is balanced, it is moving that way.

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The Big News

The big news this week is obviously the rise in interest rates.

Average 30-year fixed mortgage rates are now at 6.7% which is the highest they have been since July 2007.

So, how is this affecting the market?  Here is what we notice…

There are fewer buyers in the market.  Sales activity, measured by closed and pending sales, is down 30% compared to last year.

Prices, however, continue to rise.  Average prices are roughly 11% higher than last year.  This is driven by the market being under-supplied.

Inventory levels, as measured by months of supply, tells us we still have a Seller’s market.  There is 2 month’s of supply currently for sale.

Ultimately, we expect the rise in interest rates to slow the pace of price appreciation.  We believe the market will return to its long-term average of 6% per year.

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Most Multi

There are more multi-family residential properties under construction than at any time since 1974.

 

890,000 properties with 2+ units are currently being built across the United States.  This includes both for-sale product, and for-rent product.

 

Additional supply is clearly beneficial for both buyers and renters and will hopefully relieve some of the housing affordability issues.

 

So, why are there so many multi-family units under construction?  There seem to be three key reasons.

 

1.  The rental market is especially undersupplied with product and developers see this opportunity.

 

2.  With the increase in residential prices, multi-family becomes the only option for many first-time buyers. 

 

3.  Supply chain constraints are causing extended construction timelines.

The post Most Multi appeared first on Fort Collins Real Estate | Fort Collins Homes for Sale & Property Search.

Most Multi

There are more multi-family residential properties under construction than at any time since 1974.

 

890,000 properties with 2+ units are currently being built across the United States.  This includes both for-sale product, and for-rent product.

 

Additional supply is clearly beneficial for both buyers and renters and will hopefully relieve some of the housing affordability issues.

 

So, why are there so many multi-family units under construction?  There seem to be three key reasons.

 

1.  The rental market is especially undersupplied with product and developers see this opportunity.

 

2.  With the increase in residential prices, multi-family becomes the only option for many first-time buyers. 

 

3.  Supply chain constraints are causing extended construction timelines.

The post Most Multi appeared first on Fort Collins Real Estate | Fort Collins Homes for Sale & Property Search.

Price Peek

Here is a peek at average residential prices along the Front Range through the first half of September and how they have changed versus one year ago:

  • Larimer County = $663,000 up 11.6%
  • Weld County = $511,000 up 4.5%
  • Boulder County = $1,165,000 up 17%
  • Metro Denver = $668,000 up 9%

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Best Places

U.S. News & World Report just released their ‘Best Places to Live’ rankings and two Colorado cities made the top five list.

They rank the 150 most populated metropolitan areas on criteria such as employment, quality of life, and strength of the housing market.

Here are the top 5:

1.  Huntsville, AL

2.  Colorado Springs, CO

3.  Green Bay, WI

4.  Boulder, CO

5.  San Jose, CA

The post Best Places appeared first on Fort Collins Real Estate | Fort Collins Homes for Sale & Property Search.

Best Places

U.S. News & World Report just released their ‘Best Places to Live’ rankings and two Colorado cities made the top five list.

They rank the 150 most populated metropolitan areas on criteria such as employment, quality of life, and strength of the housing market.

Here are the top 5:

1.  Huntsville, AL

2.  Colorado Springs, CO

3.  Green Bay, WI

4.  Boulder, CO

5.  San Jose, CA

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New Rankings

The latest Home Price Index report has just been released by the Federal Housing Finance Authority.

They track home price appreciation for the largest metropolitan areas in the U.S. plus state by state appreciation.

Here is the ranking of the top three states for price growth over the last twelve months:

1.  Florida = 29%

2.  Arizona = 26%

3.  North Carolina = 25%

The bottom three states are:

50.  North Dakota = 10%

49.  Louisiana = 11%

48.  Minnesotta = 11%

Colorado came in at #19 with 18% price growth over the last 12 months.

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Like 1993

Here’s a trivia question…

The number of new, single-family homes completed in 2022 will most closely resemble which prior year?

If you guessed 1993, you are correct.

Yes, the number of homes built and completed this year is no more than the number from 30 years ago.

In 2022, there will be just over 1 million single family homes constructed in the U.S. which is the same as 1993.

This is much more than the bottom of construction in 2011 which saw just under 500,000 new homes built.

But it is also much less than the top of 2006 which had almost 1.7 million.

Limited new home construction today is preventing anything close to a glut of inventory on the market which, in turn, insulates us from any sort of major price correction.

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