No Inventory?

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One misconception about today’s market is that there is ‘no inventory.’

Actually, there are numerous new listings that hit the market each month. It just so happens that they tend to sell quickly.

The numbers show the number of new listings that came on the market in September closely equate to the number of sales that occurred.

  •  In Larimer County, 693 new residential listings hit the market last month and there were 688 sales.
  •  In Weld County, there were 681 new listings and 733 sales.
  •  In Metro Denver, there were 6125 new listings and 5233 sales.

So, while homes tend to sell quickly today, there is still a significant amount of new inventory hitting the market each month for buyers to consider.

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Staggering Stat

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By definition, a real estate market is balanced when there is 4 to 6 months of inventory currently for sale.

Anything less than 4 to 6 months means a Sellers’ market, anything more means a Buyers’ market.

For example, if there are 1,000 closings per month in a market, the market would be balanced if 4,000 to 6,000 homes were available for sale.

Here is a staggering stat for you…

At the current pace of sales, the Front Range market would need 6 to 7 times more inventory for the market to be balanced.

This is why we don’t see any sort of significant market correction or anything resembling ‘the market crashing.’ Bottom line, the market is still undersupplied.

Here are the numbers:

• Larimer County has 441 properties for sale and would need 2,200 to be balanced.
• Weld County has 322 properties for sale and would need 2,000 to be balanced.
• Metro Denver has 3,023 properties for sale and would need 20,000 to be balanced.

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Tracking Change

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The market is changing. The change is slight, not drastic.

Both potential sellers and potential buyers need to know that the pace of the market has slowed since the Spring.

Here is one way we track this change…

A review of the August numbers shows the pace of sales in each of our Front Range markets:

  •  Larimer County = 18 closings per day
  • Weld County = 16 closings per day
  • Metro Denver = 165 closings per day

Based on the pace of sales, we can determine the inventory of current homes for sale measured in days:

  • Larimer County = 24 days of inventory
  • Weld County = 23 days of inventory
  • Metro Denver = 18 days of inventory

Then we can measure the increase in days of inventory versus April of this year:

  • Larimer County = 26% increase
  • Weld County = 15% increase
  • Metro Denver = 20% increase

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Population Math

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The brand new Census data has just been released and it is fascinating!

Colorado’s population now sits just below 6 million people at 5.773 million.  Just 20 years ago it was 4.301 million.

Northern Colorado is booming and now has 688,047 in Larimer and Weld Counties.  It grew by 135,592 people in just ten years.  If Northern Colorado grows at just 2% per year, it will have 838,725 people by 2030 and 1,022,402 by 2040.  

For several years we have been predicting that Northern Colorado would exceed by 1 million people by 2040 and it looks like that will come true.

Metro Denver is also booming.  For reference, we define ‘Metro Denver’ as Adams, Arapahoe, Denver, Douglas, and Jefferson Counties.

Population in Metro Denver is now 2.831 million and was 2.109 million in the year 2000.  It has grown by 722,000 people in 20 years.

If Metro Denver grows at 2% per year, it will hit 3.451 million in 10 years and 4.206 million in 20 years.

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100 / 90 / 60

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As you’ve probably heard, prices have gone up quite a bit along the Front Range.

Low interest rates, strong demand, lower supply, and a healthy local economy are all contributing to increased prices.

It may interest you to see exactly how much prices have increased since one year ago in the markets where we have the most activity.

Over the last year, Weld County has increased roughly $100,000, Metro Denver $90,000 and Larimer County $60,000.

Specifically, here are the average prices one year ago vs. today:

  • Weld County = $426,000 vs. $523,000
  • Metro Denver = $523,000 vs. $612,000
  • Larimer County = $532,000 vs. $592,000

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Listing Averages

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While a lot of attention has been paid to increasing sales prices along the Front Range, it is also interesting to look at the average price of properties currently listed for sale.

Did you know, for instance, that the average list price of all the properties currently for sale in Metro Denver is $887,000. Meanwhile, the average closed sales price is $613,000.

In Larimer County it is $793,000 versus an average closed sales price of $601,000.

In Weld County it is $669,000 versus $488,000.

What is causing this? The high number of high-end properties currently for sale pulling up the average.

You might be surprised to hear the number of $1,000,000-plus listings active listings in our market looks like this:

  • Metro Denver = 527
  • Larimer County = 75
  • Weld County = 44

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2 to 3

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Along the Front Range we have gone from two weeks of inventory to three weeks.

For much of the Spring, there was only two weeks of inventory on the market in most areas. Meaning, it would only take 14 days to sell all of the homes currently for sale.

Now, because the pace of sales has slightly slowed down and there is a bit more inventory, there is roughly three weeks.

We can actually measure inventory in number of days based on the pace of sales in July so far:

  • Metro Denver = 23 Days
  • Larimer County = 22 Days
  • Weld County = 22 Days

This is obviously good news for buyers as they have better selection and slightly less competition.

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Inventory Uptick

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We are noticing a trend that is very good news for buyers.

Inventory has been increasing over the last month which means that buyers now have more properties to consider.

Just in the last week, the number of homes for sale has increased:

13% in Larimer County

12% in Weld County

11% in Metro Denver

If you are a buyer who has been waiting for home properties to look at, now is the time!

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High Average

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If you watch the weekly statistics that we produce and post on social media, a number that might be jumping off the screen at you is the average price.

Specifically, it is the percentage increase in average price versus last year that is striking.

We are commonly asked ‘how could average prices increase 20% to 30% in one year?’

It is important to note prices haven’t appreciated up to 30%, it’s only the average price that has increased by that amount.

A key reason why average prices have increased by such a significant amount is that there are many more luxury properties selling this year versus last year.

Sales of properties priced over $1,000,000 have seen a substantial increase compared to 2020.

Look at these numbers which show the year over year increase in closed transactions for real estate priced over $1 million:

  • Larimer County = 159%
  • Weld County = 247%
  • Metro Denver = 137%

So, transactions of luxury properties have much more than doubled compared to 2020 which is pulling up the average sales price in a significant way.

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Amazing Acreage & Barn!

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It’s the quiet, peaceful lifestyle you’ve looking for! 40901 County Road 27 is tucked away on two acres off a dirt road in Weld County, this fantastic property is just minutes from both Fort Collins and Ault. The sturdy manufactured home on a permanent foundation boasts two bedrooms, one bath, large kitchen and living room, and was almost fully renovated just five years ago; fortified with heavy-duty metal siding and roof. Enclosed porch and fenced yard. Standing barn and tack-room. There’s NO metro district or HOA here, so bring on the horses, livestock, chickens, and other critters! Enjoy amazing sunrises, spectacular sunsets and starlit night skies. A rare find and awesome value! Contact Jon Holsten at (970) 237-2752 for your private showing for more information or click the link below for more details.

http://windermerenoco.com/listing/131002937

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