Ninety Eight Percent

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Properties in Northern Colorado sell for 98% of their list price on average.

This single statistic communicates two interesting facts about the market.

First, this is not a market full of desperate sellers who are willing to accept low ball offers.

Second, properties that are priced right are the ones that are selling.

So, if a seller has an appropriate price, they can expect to receive an offer very close to the list price.

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MOI is Still LOW

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Despite decreased buyer activity driven by normal seasonal patterns plus higher interest rates, the key stat of Months of Inventory continues to stay relatively low.

Months of Inventory (MOI) is the simple measurement of how long it would take to sell the current inventory of homes for sale at the current pace of sales.

Along the Front Range, this stat ranges from roughly 2 ½ months to just over 3. A market is considered ‘balanced’ when there is 4 to 6 months of inventory for sale.

Here are the specific numbers for Front Range markets:

Larimer County = 3.1 Months

Weld County = 2.7 Months

Metro Denver = 2.4 Months

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Higher Better

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The higher-end market in Northern Colorado, in terms of number of closings, is faring better than the overall market.

When we look at the number of homes selling today and the price point of those homes, properties priced above $1,000,000 are performing better than the market as a whole.

The number of closings occurring now compared to this same time last year is down 30% overall.  But, the high-end market is only down 19%.

When we look further back in time, the data gets even more interesting.

Compared to 2021, Closings today are down 55% overall, but high-end sales are up 26%.

And compared to 2020, there are 59% fewer closings and 160% more high-end sales.

We believe there are two reasons for this dynamic.

First, because of price increases over the last few years, the stock of inventory today includes more $1,000,000- plus homes than the past.

Second, the high-end buyer is less affected by higher interest rates than the general population.  And, certainly less affected than first-time buyers.

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Year to Date

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Here is an interesting look at the market year to date versus the same time period in 2022.

Bottom line, the number of transactions is down considerably, and prices are flat to slightly down.

Larimer County = Sales down 17.5%, prices up 0.7%

Weld County = Sales down 29.6%, prices down 2.2%

Metro Denver = Sales down 22.4%, prices down 2.9%

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Year to Date

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Here is an interesting look at the market year to date versus the same time period in 2022.

Bottom line, the number of transactions is down considerably, and prices are flat to slightly down.

Larimer County = Sales down 17.5%, prices up 0.7%

Weld County = Sales down 29.6%, prices down 2.2%

Metro Denver = Sales down 22.4%, prices down 2.9%

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The Listing Solstice

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Wednesday marked the first official day of summer and the longest day of the year.

Coincidentally, the research shows us that listings are taking far longer to sell than one year ago.

Specifically, days on market has increased by the following amounts in our market versus exactly one year ago:

 

Larimer County: 210%

Weld County: 100%

Metro Denver: 122%

 

Even though days on market is up significantly over one year ago, properties are selling faster on average than what is considered ‘normal.’

Over the last 10 years, average days on market has been between 70 and 50 days. So, while properties are taking longer to sell versus the market of one year ago, they are still selling much faster than normal.

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Mis-Led

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The most misleading stat about the housing market is increase in inventory. The number of properties for sale is up significantly compared to last year.  In most locations along the Front Range, inventory has doubled.This is obviously great news for buyers because they now have more choice.This is obviously meaningful for sellers because they now have more competition.But, it does not mean there is a glut of inventory.  It does not mean that we are now, all of a sudden, over-supplied.Quite the contrary.  The market is still undersupplied.  There would need to be at least double the amount of homes for sale for Front Range real estate to begin to be balanced.The increase in inventory, being so large, gets a lot of attention in the media and can sometimes be taken the wrong way.Yes, inventory has doubled.  But, it has doubled compared to all time lows.Freddie Mac reports that Nationally, the market is undersupplied by 3.8 million housing units.So, the increase in homes for sale is a good thing for the market and is nothing like a glut of inventory.

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