Friday Fun Facts – Does the Federal Reserve affect Mortgage Rates?

The federal funds rate and mortgage rates are both types of interest rates, but they operate differently. The Fed directly controls the federal funds rate, which primarily influences short-term interest rates, while mortgage rates are determined by lenders based on long-term bond yields and various economic factors like inflation and market demand. This means that while both rates can move in the same direction, they don’t always do so. For instance, when inflation rises, mortgage lenders may increase rates to protect their returns, even if the Fed lowers its rate. This nuanced relationship reflects differing priorities: the Fed balances inflation with job market stability, while lenders focus on the erosion of their future payments. Historical data supports this divergence, illustrating that Fed rate changes don’t consistently correlate with mortgage rate adjustments.

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Not As Different

Real Estate in the first part of 2023 along the Front Range is certainly different than the first part of 2022.  But, in terms of number of transactions, it is not as different as one might guess.

Yes, higher interest rates and lower inventory has caused the number of transactions to be less than last year.

Generally speaking, the number of homes that have sold so far in 2023 is 20% lower than the same time period last year.

This does vary by region.  Larimer County is down 15%, Weld County 29% and Metro Denver 21%.

It is important to keep in mind that the first 110 days of 2022 were unprecedented in terms of activity.

Some of the sensationalized media attention on real estate may imply that activity has come to a screeching halt, but that is simply not true.

There is still plenty of demand in the market for real estate on the Front Range.

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