Five by Five

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Here’s a fun fact about the current inventory along the Front Range.

The number of properties for sale is five times as many versus the all-time low in 2022.

And, it is one-fifth as many compared to the all-time high in 2006.

Also, it is half of the long-term average.

So, selection is much higher than the frenzied 2021/2022 market.

However, inventory is still very low relatively speaking.

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Double, Half, Fifth

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Today’s inventory of residential properties along the Front Range is…

Double what it was in 2021 (the all-time low)

Half of the long-term average (going back to 1985)

One-fifth of what it was in 2006 (the all-time high)

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On Sale

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With interest rates so low, one could argue that money is essentially on sale.

It’s actually half off.

30-year mortgage rates hit 3.75% which is exactly half of their long term average.

Rates have averaged 7.5% over the last 40 years so today buyers are getting half of that rate.

The “sale” on mortgage rates creates a significant savings in monthly payment because of the 1%/10% rule.

For every 1% change in interest rate, the monthly payment will change roughly 10%.

So when rates go up to 4.75%, a buyer’s payment will be 10% higher.

For example, the principal and interest payment on a $400,000 home with a 20% down payment at today’s rates is $1,482.

If rates were 1% higher, the payments jump up to $1,669.

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Why No Bubble

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There are several reasons why our Chief Economist does not believe there is a housing bubble today in the U.S.

Below is a slide he shared at our recent market Forecast events.

It shows U.S. Home ownership rate, which is simply the percentage of the population who own their home (versus renting).

The long-term average is 65% represented by the red line.

In the graph you can clearly see the bubble forming. Starting in the mid-90’s, driven by several political and economic factors, more people than ever before became homeowners.

 

 

Then, starting in, 2008, the bubble burst and the percentage tumbled back down.

Now, as you can see, we are back at a “normal” level that resembles the long-term average.

________________________________________

If you would like a copy of the entire Forecast presentation, go ahead and reach out to us. We would be happy to put it in your hands.

The post Why No Bubble appeared first on Fort Collins Real Estate | Fort Collins Homes for Sale & Property Search.

Why No Bubble

/in , , , , , , , , , , , /by

 

There are several reasons why our Chief Economist does not believe there is a housing bubble today in the U.S.

Below is a slide he shared at our recent market Forecast events.

It shows U.S. Home ownership rate, which is simply the percentage of the population who own their home (versus renting).

The long-term average is 65% represented by the red line.

In the graph you can clearly see the bubble forming. Starting in the mid-90’s, driven by several political and economic factors, more people than ever before became homeowners.

 

 

Then, starting in, 2008, the bubble burst and the percentage tumbled back down.

Now, as you can see, we are back at a “normal” level that resembles the long-term average.

________________________________________

If you would like a copy of the entire Forecast presentation, go ahead and reach out to us. We would be happy to put it in your hands.

The post Why No Bubble appeared first on Fort Collins Real Estate | Fort Collins Homes for Sale & Property Search.