High Average

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If you watch the weekly statistics that we produce and post on social media, a number that might be jumping off the screen at you is the average price.

Specifically, it is the percentage increase in average price versus last year that is striking.

We are commonly asked ‘how could average prices increase 20% to 30% in one year?’

It is important to note prices haven’t appreciated up to 30%, it’s only the average price that has increased by that amount.

A key reason why average prices have increased by such a significant amount is that there are many more luxury properties selling this year versus last year.

Sales of properties priced over $1,000,000 have seen a substantial increase compared to 2020.

Look at these numbers which show the year over year increase in closed transactions for real estate priced over $1 million:

  • Larimer County = 159%
  • Weld County = 247%
  • Metro Denver = 137%

So, transactions of luxury properties have much more than doubled compared to 2020 which is pulling up the average sales price in a significant way.

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A Little Perspective

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House

Here’s a little perspective on the inventory of homes for sale in today’s market…

First we’ll look at Metro Denver:

  • The average number of residential listings for sale at this time of year is 15,577
  • The highest-ever for this time of year is 29,722 which occurred in 2006
  • The number of listings right now is 4,821
  • So, inventory in Metro Denver is roughly one-third of the average and 25,000 fewer than the highest-ever.
  • DMAR is the source of the stats listed above

 

Now, Northern Colorado:

  • Larimer County has 802 active listings today
  • Based on 10 years of data, this is the lowest it has ever been
  • The high in Larimer County occurred in 2010 with 2608 listings so today’s inventory is one-third of what it was 10 years ago.
  • Inventory today in Weld County is 727 which isn’t the lowest-ever.
  • The lowest during the last 10 years was 2017.

The highest was 2010 with 1791 properties so today there are roughly 1,000 fewer properties to choose from.

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Pendings are Popping

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Temperatures may be cooling off but the Front Range real estate market is not.

 

Typically the market starts to slow down a bit in the Fall after a hot Spring and Summer.

 

Not this year.

 

The indicator we use to measure future closed sales is current pending sales.

 

Simply, we look at the number of properties under contract and scheduled to close versus the same time last year.

 

Current pending sales are way up along the Front Range when measured against 2019:

 

Metro Denver up 34.1%

Larimer County up 48.6%

Weld County up 50.2%

Based on these numbers, closed sales numbers over the next 60 days will be very strong.

bubbles

At Windermere Real Estate we are taking Safer at Home and Social Distancing very seriously.  Our people are following our Safe Showings protocol, staying connected to their clients, and providing help wherever needed.

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At Least List

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Periodically we track a stat which we find to be quite interesting.

 

It answers this question – how many properties are selling for at least list price (asking price or higher)?

 

This stat tells us how active the market is and helps our buyers to realize that, in some cases, they will be in a competitive situation.

 

When we look at single-family home sales so far this month, this is what we find:

  • 57% of properties in Larimer County sell for at least list price
  • 62% of properties in Weld County sell for at least list price

So, in well over half of the transactions, buyers need to offer list price or higher to acquire the property.

 

The data gets even more interesting when this information is broken out by price range.

 

To no one’s surprise, the percentage increases for properties priced under $400,000:

  • 81% in Larimer County
  • 70% in Weld County

We find that for properties over $400,000 the percentages still tell a story of a very active market:

  • 47% in Larimer County
  • 56% in Weld County

Bottom line, in most locations and price ranges we see a strong sellers’ market where buyers need to be prepared to make a strong offer and to also compete.

tug of war

At Windermere Real Estate we are taking Safer at Home and Social Distancing very seriously.  Our people are following our Safe Showings protocol, staying connected to their clients, and providing help wherever needed.

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4 Acres in Berthoud!

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Incredibly unique rural property 528 E County Road 2 in Larimer County side of Berthoud. Water rights included in the sale, and the wells irrigate the landscaping. This home has multigenerational living with a master suite on one side and a separate living area on the other side with handicapped access and a kitchen (with no stove). Extra living area is handicap accessible. Detached garage, shop, and additional building that could be used for storage or an office space. 4 acres of currently farmed grass hay, mature and beautiful landscaping with trees, grass, and a large patio. Stainless appliances and 2 ovens for those that like to cook. Tankless water heater and new roof as well. Come see this home today! Contact Paul Hunter at (970) 673-7285 for your private showing for more information or click the link below for more details.

http://windermerenoco.com/listing/112955014

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Tight Inventory

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The numbers that we find to be most interesting right now are all related to inventory.

 

Long story short, inventory is tight.

 

It was already tight pre-coronavirus and now it’s even tighter.

 

Here are the numbers.

 

Active properties for sale versus one year ago are down:

  • 11% in Larimer County
  • 20% in Weld County
  • 26% in Metro Denver

 

This low inventory is one of several reasons that prices are generally still up across the Front Range.

 

At Windermere Real Estate we are taking Safer at Home and Social Distancing very seriously.  Our people are following our Safe Showings protocol, staying connected to their clients, and providing help wherever needed

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The 12 Facts of Real Estate

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While your true love may be getting you a partridge in a pear tree in the near future, we decided to give you the 12 facts of Colorado real estate:

  • 1 is the ranking Colorado owns for long-term home price appreciation versus all other states
  • 2.6% unemployment rate in Colorado right now
  • 3.73% mortgage rate for a 30-year mortgage which is about half of the long term average
  • 4.7% apartment vacancy rate in Metro Denver, the lowest since 2015
  • 5.5% is the long-term average for yearly home price appreciation along the Front Range
  • 6,000,000 live in Colorado
  • 7,000 residential properties are for sale in Metro Denver right now and the average for this time of year is 14,700
  • 80,000 is the number of people that is added to our state’s population each year
  • 9 homes are for sale in Larimer and Weld County priced over $2,500,000
  • -10% is the decrease in new home construction in Larimer County compared to last year while Weld County grew by 17%
  • 11 times in the last 40 years home prices have gone up at least 8% along the Front Range
  • $1,202,488 is the average price for a single-family home in the City of Boulder

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It’s time to register for our annual Market Forecast event.  We will be live at 5:30 on January 16th at the Marriott in Fort Collins.  Back by popular demand is our Chief Economist Matthew Gardner.  Save your seat HERE.

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Vital Signs

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Here are the vital signs for the Northern Colorado market.

First, Larimer County:

  • Average prices are up 2.4%
  • Number of transactions is down 2.5%
  • Inventory is up 11.9%
  • Days on market is up 4.1%

Now, Weld County:

  • Average prices are up 4.3%
  • Number of transactions is up 3.6%
  • Inventory is up 12.9%
  • Days on market is flat (same as last year)

What this means is prices are still going up, just not as fast as they were a couple of years ago.  More inventory is coming on the market which is great news for buyers.

 

house,calculator and key on document

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Two Tales

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This is a Tale of Two Counties.

When it comes to new home activity, there is a big difference between Larimer and Weld Counties.

Larimer County’s new home starts are down 10% and new home closings are down 15% compared to last year.

Weld County’s new home starts are up 18% and new home closings are up 8% compared to last year.

This is all according to the new home research experts and Metrostudy.

So why the difference?  It comes down to price and availability.

There is more land available for new home development in Weld County.

Plus, the land tends to be less-expensive than Larimer which means that builders can deliver a lower-priced product and reach a larger pool of buyers.

The average price of a new home in Larimer County is $507,105 while the average new home price in Weld is $411,269.

 

If you want to see even more insights about the Colorado market so that you can make really good decisions about your real estate, you are welcome to watch this complimentary webinar, just click HERE.

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How Much?

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So how much real estate is sold in Northern Colorado?

As it turns out, a lot!

Last month alone there were 1,099 single family homes that sold in Larimer and Weld Counties

The average price was $429,144 which means the total sales volume for one month was $471,629,129 (almost a half a billion)!

Over the last 12 months, just over $4.5 billion worth of single-family homes have sold.

That’s a lot of real estate!

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