Mis-Led

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The most misleading stat about the housing market is increase in inventory. The number of properties for sale is up significantly compared to last year.  In most locations along the Front Range, inventory has doubled.This is obviously great news for buyers because they now have more choice.This is obviously meaningful for sellers because they now have more competition.But, it does not mean there is a glut of inventory.  It does not mean that we are now, all of a sudden, over-supplied.Quite the contrary.  The market is still undersupplied.  There would need to be at least double the amount of homes for sale for Front Range real estate to begin to be balanced.The increase in inventory, being so large, gets a lot of attention in the media and can sometimes be taken the wrong way.Yes, inventory has doubled.  But, it has doubled compared to all time lows.Freddie Mac reports that Nationally, the market is undersupplied by 3.8 million housing units.So, the increase in homes for sale is a good thing for the market and is nothing like a glut of inventory.

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Halfway Check

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This is a market which is changing quickly.  We are studying the numbers every day so we can be clear about where the market is heading.

Here is a check on the market halfway through October.

Compared to last October…

  • Available inventory is up 73% in Northern Colorado and up 112% in Metro Denver.  This is significant for buyers who, for years, were challenged with limited selection.
  • Number of closed transactions is down 50% in Northern Colorado and 41% in Metro Denver.  This reflects the fact that fewer buyers are active right now given higher interest rates.

Prices continue to be higher than last year.  They are up 12% in Northern Colorado and 13% in Metro Denver.  We don’t expect double-digit increases to continue, but don’t expect anything like a price crash.

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More Days

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A stat that we have expected to change is finally changing.

“Days on Market” measures how long it takes for new listings to sell.

Over the last two years this stat plummeted to levels we have never seen before.

In the height of the market frenzy a year ago, properties were taking 7 days or less to sell on average.

Now, with the market cooling, Days on Market is back into double-digits.

Northern Colorado is at 20 days, a 54% increase over last year.

Metro Denver is at 12 days which is a 50% increase.

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Top Three

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Here are the top three reasons why prices are unlikely to crash even though the market has cooled off:

  1. Inventory – Ultimately, prices are driven by supply and demand.  Although supply has increased, it still remains relatively low with less than two months’ supply in most areas.
  2. New Homes – New home construction still lags behind the demand stemming from population growth.  New home starts today are roughly 2/3 of what they were in 2005.
  3. Credit – Home buyers today are highly qualified which protects the market from a glut of ‘distressed’ properties hitting the market in an economic downturn.  The average credit score of buyers is now 776 which, by definition, is ‘excellent.’   Only 2% of loans today are given to buyers with scores under 640 whereas in 2001 25% of buyers had that low of a score.

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Top Three

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Here are the top three reasons why prices are unlikely to crash even though the market has cooled off:

  1. Inventory – Ultimately, prices are driven by supply and demand.  Although supply has increased, it still remains relatively low with less than two months’ supply in most areas.
  2. New Homes – New home construction still lags behind the demand stemming from population growth.  New home starts today are roughly 2/3 of what they were in 2005.
  3. Credit – Home buyers today are highly qualified which protects the market from a glut of ‘distressed’ properties hitting the market in an economic downturn.  The average credit score of buyers is now 776 which, by definition, is ‘excellent.’   Only 2% of loans today are given to buyers with scores under 640 whereas in 2001 25% of buyers had that low of a score.

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Steady Stream

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Despite the extraordinarily low amount of standing inventory, it is important to understand there is still a steady stream of new inventory hitting the market.

Inventory is low. That is a reality.

New inventory is coming on the market at essentially the same pace as compared to the last few years. That is also a reality.

Because demand is so high, the inventory doesn’t stay on the market very long.  Residential listings go from ‘Active’ to ‘Pending’ very quickly (assuming they are priced correctly).

Over the course of 2021, there were 66,308 new residential listings that hit the market in Metro Denver.  That is only 5% less than 2020.

Larimer County had 8,342 which is 7% less than 2020.

Weld County had 8,499 which is 5% less than 2020.

While standing inventory is near 50% lower than last year, the stream of new inventory is fairly consistent.

It is time to register for our annual Market Forecast with Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. This year the event will be hosted online on Thursday February 3rd from 11:00 to 12:00.

You can register at www.ColoradoForecast.com

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Standing Low

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The standing inventory of residential properties currently for sale is staggeringly low.

The number of active properties for sale is almost 90% below the average for this time of year.

In Metro Denver, there are 1,144 residential properties for sale today.

In Larimer County, there are 136 and in Weld County there are 174. 

Current inventory along the Front Range is essentially half of what it was one year ago.

The low standing inventory bolsters our belief that nothing resembling a decline in housing prices is on the horizon.  The low supply will continue to put upward pressure on prices.

It is time to register for our annual Market Forecast with Chief Economist Matthew Gardner.  This year the event will be hosted online on Thursday February 3rd from 11:00 to 12:00.

You can register at www.ColoradoForecast.com

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Slight Increase

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A review of the September market stats shows a slight increase in inventory along the Front Range.

The way we currently measure inventory is in days.

Meaning, at the current pace of sales, how many days would it take to sell all of the inventory currently for sale.

The results, based on September’s activity, shows only a slight increase compared to August. This increase can be tied to seasonality as we always experience a slight cooling off of the market heading into the Fall.

Here is what the residential inventory looks like in each of our markets:

  •  Larimer County = 25 days
  • Weld County = 23 days
  • Metro Denver = 21 days

Bottom line, the residential market is still very healthy.

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Slight Increase

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A review of the September market stats shows a slight increase in inventory along the Front Range.

The way we currently measure inventory is in days.

Meaning, at the current pace of sales, how many days would it take to sell all of the inventory currently for sale.

The results, based on September’s activity, shows only a slight increase compared to August. This increase can be tied to seasonality as we always experience a slight cooling off of the market heading into the Fall.

Here is what the residential inventory looks like in each of our markets:

  •  Larimer County = 25 days
  • Weld County = 23 days
  • Metro Denver = 21 days

Bottom line, the residential market is still very healthy.

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Inventory Uptick

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We are noticing a trend that is very good news for buyers.

Inventory has been increasing over the last month which means that buyers now have more properties to consider.

Just in the last week, the number of homes for sale has increased:

13% in Larimer County

12% in Weld County

11% in Metro Denver

If you are a buyer who has been waiting for home properties to look at, now is the time!

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