Dropping Inventory

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Breaking News – months of inventory has dropped significantly signifying an uptick in real estate activity along the Front Range.‘Months of inventory’ is an important statistic and something we commonly talk about in this blog. It simply measures how long it would take to sell all of the homes currently for sale at the current pace of sales.As a reminder, a market is ‘balanced’ when there is four to six months of inventory on the market.During the fast-paced market of June 2020 to June 2022, this statistic dropped to less than one month.During the market cooling of last Winter, it increased to over two months.Now, it is back to nearly one month of supply signaling a clear seller’s market.Of course, all markets are hyper-local and this number can vary based on specific price point and specific location.However, looking at ‘months of inventory’ from a big picture view, offers a good understanding of overall market conditions.Here is what months of inventory is for each Front Range market:Larimer County = 1.3 MonthsWeld County = 1.2 Months Metro Denver = 1.1 Months

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No Bear

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Altos Research is one of the most trusted sources of real estate market information in the United States.  Each week they track every single home for sale across the Country.  They analyze the pricing, supply, demand, and status changes for all listings.  This amount of data allows them to expertly predict changes in the market.

Their founder, Mike Simonsen, recently said this about the current state of the real estate market:

“The most important thing to take away is that the most bearish scenarios for home prices this year are not taking place.   If a buyer is sitting on the sidelines waiting for a home price crash, in general across the country that’s not happening.

“We can measure demand and the direction of future sales prices by looking at the percent of homes on the market with price reductions. This number, frankly, is lower than I would have expected given how few buyers were out in the fall. This a sign that sellers are not panicking and that smart, properly priced listings are getting their offers.”

 

The annual Market Forecast featuring Chief Economist Matthew Gardner is February 1st at 5:30pm.  To see the details and to RSVP, visit www.ColoradoForecast.com

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No Bear

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Altos Research is one of the most trusted sources of real estate market information in the United States.  Each week they track every single home for sale across the Country.  They analyze the pricing, supply, demand, and status changes for all listings.  This amount of data allows them to expertly predict changes in the market.

Their founder, Mike Simonsen, recently said this about the current state of the real estate market:

“The most important thing to take away is that the most bearish scenarios for home prices this year are not taking place.   If a buyer is sitting on the sidelines waiting for a home price crash, in general across the country that’s not happening.

“We can measure demand and the direction of future sales prices by looking at the percent of homes on the market with price reductions. This number, frankly, is lower than I would have expected given how few buyers were out in the fall. This a sign that sellers are not panicking and that smart, properly priced listings are getting their offers.”

 

The annual Market Forecast featuring Chief Economist Matthew Gardner is February 1st at 5:30pm.  To see the details and to RSVP, visit www.ColoradoForecast.com

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Versus 2019

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Because 2021 and 2020 were such unique years in real estate because of the considerably low interest rates, many people in our industry believe it makes sense to compare 2022 to 2019 when looking at the key statistics.

Here’s how 2022 looked along the Front Range compared to 2019:

 

                                             Prices                   Number of Transactions                Properties for Sale

Larimer County                 +41%                    -6%                                                     -37%

Weld County                     +39%                    +2%                                                    -16%

Metro Denver                   +40%                    -14%                                                   -6%

 

Generally, what we notice is that:

  • Prices are up significantly
  • The number of transactions is similar
  • Inventory is down compared to 2019 even though it is more than double 2021’s inventory

 

The annual Market Forecast featuring Chief Economist Matthew Gardner is February 1st at 5:30pm.  To see the details and to RSVP, visit www.ColoradoForecast.com

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Way Under

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The Nation’s real estate market is significantly under-supplied.According to the most recent research from Freddie Mac, the United States has a housing supply deficit of 3.8 million units.The available inventory today is lower than it has ever been in the last 40 years and is 3.5x lower than the peak of 2008.The reason why available inventory is so low, is the low amount of new home starts that have occurred over the last 15 years.Builders have faced many obstacles trying to keep up with housing demand including supply chain issues, labor supply, land availability, water availability, and stricter approval processes.Fewer new homes were built in the decade ending 2018 than any other decade since the 1960’s.The reality is, the obstacles builders face are unlikely to change significantly in the foreseeable future.Low inventory is likely to persist.An under-supplied market is a key reason leading economists do not expect home prices to crash even while the market cools off.

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Big Jump

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We are seeing a big jump in properties for sale as measured by months of inventory.​​​​​​​

As a reminder, a market is considered balanced when there is between 4 and 6 months of inventory on the market.  Meaning, at the current pace of sales, it would take 4 to 6 months to sell all of the properties currently for sale.

Inventory one year ago at this time was:

  • 1 month in Northern Colorado
  • 0.7 months in Metro Denver (3 weeks)

Today the inventory is:

  • 2.3 months in Northern Colorado
  • 2.3 months in Metro Denver

This represents a:

  • 164% increase in Northern Colorado
  • 245% increase in Metro Denver

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Toward Balance

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Our market is moving toward a balanced market, but it is still unbalanced.

By definition, a balanced market has between 4 and 6 months of inventory for sale.

Today there is essentially two months.  One year ago, there was only 3 weeks of inventory.

It has actually been 16 years since the market has been in balance.

So, while we still have a ways to go before it is balanced, it is moving that way.

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The Big News

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The big news this week is obviously the rise in interest rates.

Average 30-year fixed mortgage rates are now at 6.7% which is the highest they have been since July 2007.

So, how is this affecting the market?  Here is what we notice…

There are fewer buyers in the market.  Sales activity, measured by closed and pending sales, is down 30% compared to last year.

Prices, however, continue to rise.  Average prices are roughly 11% higher than last year.  This is driven by the market being under-supplied.

Inventory levels, as measured by months of supply, tells us we still have a Seller’s market.  There is 2 month’s of supply currently for sale.

Ultimately, we expect the rise in interest rates to slow the pace of price appreciation.  We believe the market will return to its long-term average of 6% per year.

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Most Multi

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There are more multi-family residential properties under construction than at any time since 1974.

 

890,000 properties with 2+ units are currently being built across the United States.  This includes both for-sale product, and for-rent product.

 

Additional supply is clearly beneficial for both buyers and renters and will hopefully relieve some of the housing affordability issues.

 

So, why are there so many multi-family units under construction?  There seem to be three key reasons.

 

1.  The rental market is especially undersupplied with product and developers see this opportunity.

 

2.  With the increase in residential prices, multi-family becomes the only option for many first-time buyers. 

 

3.  Supply chain constraints are causing extended construction timelines.

The post Most Multi appeared first on Fort Collins Real Estate | Fort Collins Homes for Sale & Property Search.

Most Multi

/in , , , , , , , , , , , , , , /by

There are more multi-family residential properties under construction than at any time since 1974.

 

890,000 properties with 2+ units are currently being built across the United States.  This includes both for-sale product, and for-rent product.

 

Additional supply is clearly beneficial for both buyers and renters and will hopefully relieve some of the housing affordability issues.

 

So, why are there so many multi-family units under construction?  There seem to be three key reasons.

 

1.  The rental market is especially undersupplied with product and developers see this opportunity.

 

2.  With the increase in residential prices, multi-family becomes the only option for many first-time buyers. 

 

3.  Supply chain constraints are causing extended construction timelines.

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