Not Delinquent

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As a sign of the overall health of the U.S. real estate market, single-family mortgages that are ‘seriously delinquent’ only represent 0.51% of all single-family mortgages.

This percentage is lower than last month and lower than last year.

A mortgage is considered ‘seriously delinquent’ if it is more than 90 days past due.

To put the current rate in perspective, in February 2010 5.6% of single-family mortgages were seriously delinquent.

So, today’s number is roughly 10% of the worst time of the housing bubble.

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Equity Cushion

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You may remember the term “Home ATM” from the mid 2000’s. This term stemmed from the abundance of homeowners who pulled significant amounts of equity from their homes in the form of Home Equity Loans and Lines of Credit. Home values dropping in 2008, 2009 and 2010 caused many homeowners to be ‘underwater’ meaning that, all at once, their home was worth less than they owed.

Today, there are two big differences compared to the Home ATM years.

First, homeowners today have a lot of equity and very few homeowners are underwater. Of all the properties in the U.S. with mortgages, only 2.1% have negative equity. At the end of 2009, 24% of properties were underwater.

Second, homeowners are not pulling cash out of their homes like they were in the mid 2000’s. Net Equity Extraction is only 1.6% of disposable income compared to 8% during the housing bubble years.

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Equity Cushion

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You may remember the term “Home ATM” from the mid 2000’s. This term stemmed from the abundance of homeowners who pulled significant amounts of equity from their homes in the form of Home Equity Loans and Lines of Credit. Home values dropping in 2008, 2009 and 2010 caused many homeowners to be ‘underwater’ meaning that, all at once, their home was worth less than they owed.

Today, there are two big differences compared to the Home ATM years.

First, homeowners today have a lot of equity and very few homeowners are underwater. Of all the properties in the U.S. with mortgages, only 2.1% have negative equity. At the end of 2009, 24% of properties were underwater.

Second, homeowners are not pulling cash out of their homes like they were in the mid 2000’s. Net Equity Extraction is only 1.6% of disposable income compared to 8% during the housing bubble years.

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Still Behind

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Single family new housing starts in 2022 will show an increase versus last year, will be the most since 2007, and will still be well behind the peak of 2006.

This year, experts predict that a total of 1.1 million single family homes will be started. In 2021 there were 970 thousand new home starts.

The peak occurred in 2006, when 1.65 new homes were started.

So, this year will finish 33% behind the peak.

When we are asked why today’s market is different from the ‘bubble years’ of 2004 to 2007, the difference in new home starts is one reason we cite.

Even though the market is cooling, we remain significantly undersupplied which insulates prices from any kind of dramatic downturn.

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Housing Inventory

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Many of our clients wonder if the current pace of price growth can continue.  Some even ask if prices will decline this year. 

Based on researching the Case-Shiller Home Price index and the National Association of Realtors home inventory data, there must be at least 6 months of inventory in a market for prices to have any chance of declining. We wrapped up 2021 with about 2 weeks of inventory across Larimer County, Weld County and Metro Denver. This marks a 43%-46% decrease in inventory as compared to December 2020.

The dwindling supply and the rising prices have led to a lot of questions about the future of the housing market. Is there a market crash on the horizon? Is there a housing bubble that’s about the burst? The answer is no. Although it is unlikely that the market can continue at this pace indefinitely, all signs point to a healthy housing market in 2022.

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In Perspective

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Let’s put today’s home prices in perspective.

Appreciation has been significant over the last 18 months. Some people are wondering if it can last and if there might be a housing bubble.

There are two ways to look at prices. One way is in absolute terms. This is simply looking at the dollar amount a home would sell for at some point in the past versus the dollar amount it would sell for.

The other way is in real terms. ‘Real’ is an economics term which means that inflation is factored into the valuation.

For example, a gallon of milk costs more today in absolute terms than it did 15 years ago. However, in real terms, the cost is about the same as 15 years ago because inflation is factored in. The price of milk has essentially escalated at the same rate as inflation.

So, how about home prices? As we know, prices in absolute terms are higher than 15 years ago. To be exact, prices are 43% higher Nationally compared to 2006 according to Case-Shiller.

However, in real terms, prices are the same as 2006.

Over the last 15 years, homes have appreciated at essentially the same rate as inflation.

The post In Perspective appeared first on Fort Collins Real Estate | Fort Collins Homes for Sale & Property Search.

In Perspective

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Let’s put today’s home prices in perspective.

Appreciation has been significant over the last 18 months. Some people are wondering if it can last and if there might be a housing bubble.

There are two ways to look at prices. One way is in absolute terms. This is simply looking at the dollar amount a home would sell for at some point in the past versus the dollar amount it would sell for.

The other way is in real terms. ‘Real’ is an economics term which means that inflation is factored into the valuation.

For example, a gallon of milk costs more today in absolute terms than it did 15 years ago. However, in real terms, the cost is about the same as 15 years ago because inflation is factored in. The price of milk has essentially escalated at the same rate as inflation.

So, how about home prices? As we know, prices in absolute terms are higher than 15 years ago. To be exact, prices are 43% higher Nationally compared to 2006 according to Case-Shiller.

However, in real terms, prices are the same as 2006.

Over the last 15 years, homes have appreciated at essentially the same rate as inflation.

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Re Bubble

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Bubble

 

The activity in the Front Range market is causing us to hear the bubble question again.

People are curious to know, based on recent growth in price appreciation, if we are in a housing bubble.

This question seems to crop up when prices go up.

While we do not believe that the current double-digit price appreciation is sustainable, we firmly believe we will not see prices crash or see any kind of a bubble bursting.

Here’s why we think that…

This past Tuesday we hosted a private online event for our clients which featured our Chief Economist Matthew Gardner.

Matthew is well-known and well-respected in the industry.  He is often quoted in leading real estate publications.

He sees four reasons why there is no real estate bubble that is about to pop in Colorado.

  1. Inventory is (incredibly) low.  The number of homes for sale is down over 40% compared to last year.  The market is drastically under-supplied.  Based on simple economic principles of supply and demand, inventory would need to grow significantly for prices to drop.
  2. Buyers’ credit scores are very high.  The average credit score for buyers last month, for example was 759.  So, by definition, average buyers today have excellent credit which means there is low risk of them walking away from their mortgage and causing a foreclosure crisis.
  3. Buyers have high down payments.  On average, buyers are putting 18% down on their purchases.  This means that prices would need to fall by a considerable amount in order for the average buyer to be ‘upside down’ on their mortgage.
  4. Owners are equity rich.  Well over a third of property owners along the Front Range have more than 50% equity in their homes.  This means that a severe economic downturn causing a slew of distressed properties to hit the market is highly unlikely.

Bottom line, as Matthew Gardner reminded us, what we are experiencing in the economy today is a health crisis not a housing crisis.

If you would like a recording of the private webinar we would be happy to send it to you.  Just reach out and let us know.

The post Re Bubble appeared first on Fort Collins Real Estate | Fort Collins Homes for Sale & Property Search.

Re Bubble

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Bubble

 

The activity in the Front Range market is causing us to hear the bubble question again.

People are curious to know, based on recent growth in price appreciation, if we are in a housing bubble.

This question seems to crop up when prices go up.

While we do not believe that the current double-digit price appreciation is sustainable, we firmly believe we will not see prices crash or see any kind of a bubble bursting.

Here’s why we think that…

This past Tuesday we hosted a private online event for our clients which featured our Chief Economist Matthew Gardner.

Matthew is well-known and well-respected in the industry.  He is often quoted in leading real estate publications.

He sees four reasons why there is no real estate bubble that is about to pop in Colorado.

  1. Inventory is (incredibly) low.  The number of homes for sale is down over 40% compared to last year.  The market is drastically under-supplied.  Based on simple economic principles of supply and demand, inventory would need to grow significantly for prices to drop.
  2. Buyers’ credit scores are very high.  The average credit score for buyers last month, for example was 759.  So, by definition, average buyers today have excellent credit which means there is low risk of them walking away from their mortgage and causing a foreclosure crisis.
  3. Buyers have high down payments.  On average, buyers are putting 18% down on their purchases.  This means that prices would need to fall by a considerable amount in order for the average buyer to be ‘upside down’ on their mortgage.
  4. Owners are equity rich.  Well over a third of property owners along the Front Range have more than 50% equity in their homes.  This means that a severe economic downturn causing a slew of distressed properties to hit the market is highly unlikely.

Bottom line, as Matthew Gardner reminded us, what we are experiencing in the economy today is a health crisis not a housing crisis.

If you would like a recording of the private webinar we would be happy to send it to you.  Just reach out and let us know.

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Bubble Burst

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Every so often we will hear a concern that another housing bubble is forming.

To help answer that question it’s valuable to look at the reasons that caused the last one.

There were three main drivers of the bubble that burst in 2008:

  1. Easy Credit – loans were very easy to attain
  2. Over-Leverage – people were using their homes at ATM’s
  3. Over-Supply – too many new homes were being built

Now, let’s compare that to today:

  1. Stricter Credit – the average home buyer today has a FICO score of 755
  2. High Equity – collectively, U.S. homeowners have $19 Trillion of equity in their homes and collective mortgage debt has not increased for 13 years
  3. Under-Supply – today we are building only two-thirds of the new homes being built in 2004 yet the population is much higher

Given this healthy information, we don’t see another housing bubble forming today.

If you would like to see a video recap of our annual Market Forecast you can watch that HERE.

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