Showings to Sell

How many showings will a property have before it sells?

In Northern Colorado, the answer is eight.

This is according to our local MLS system called IRES which tracks the median number of showings a property has before going under contract.

This information is valuable to sellers so they can have realistic expectations while starting the process of selling their home.

It is also a useful guideline to gauge if a property is priced correctly. If a home has had more than eight showings but is not under contract yet, there may be an issue with the price and/or condition.

Counterintuitively, this statistic is lower today than it was in the hot market of 2021. Back then the median was 12 in Larimer County and 10 in Weld County.

The reason why it was higher then, even though the market was stronger, is because there were many more buyers looking at properties. Back then there were so many buyers that many homes only allowed 15-minute showing windows in order to accommodate all of the people who wanted to see homes.

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Larimer Resilience

To see the resilience of the Front Range market, look no further than Larimer County.

The average price for closed single-family homes in the month of July was $724,000.

This is only the third time in history Larimer County has exceeded $700,000 for average price in a month.

July’s average price is a whopping 12% higher than February’s average price which was $646,000.

A 12% difference in just a few months is significant in any market.

What makes this increase especially significant is that interest rates have been above 6.5% the entire time.

Higher rates did not keep prices from going higher.

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Higher Better

The higher-end market in Northern Colorado, in terms of number of closings, is faring better than the overall market.

When we look at the number of homes selling today and the price point of those homes, properties priced above $1,000,000 are performing better than the market as a whole.

The number of closings occurring now compared to this same time last year is down 30% overall.  But, the high-end market is only down 19%.

When we look further back in time, the data gets even more interesting.

Compared to 2021, Closings today are down 55% overall, but high-end sales are up 26%.

And compared to 2020, there are 59% fewer closings and 160% more high-end sales.

We believe there are two reasons for this dynamic.

First, because of price increases over the last few years, the stock of inventory today includes more $1,000,000- plus homes than the past.

Second, the high-end buyer is less affected by higher interest rates than the general population.  And, certainly less affected than first-time buyers.

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Year to Date

Here is an interesting look at the market year to date versus the same time period in 2022.

Bottom line, the number of transactions is down considerably, and prices are flat to slightly down.

Larimer County = Sales down 17.5%, prices up 0.7%

Weld County = Sales down 29.6%, prices down 2.2%

Metro Denver = Sales down 22.4%, prices down 2.9%

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Year to Date

Here is an interesting look at the market year to date versus the same time period in 2022.

Bottom line, the number of transactions is down considerably, and prices are flat to slightly down.

Larimer County = Sales down 17.5%, prices up 0.7%

Weld County = Sales down 29.6%, prices down 2.2%

Metro Denver = Sales down 22.4%, prices down 2.9%

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New Opportunity

One of the many opportunities for buyers today is new construction.

In Northern Colorado, just under 25% of all available homes for sale are brand new homes.

That percentage is roughly 50% more than normal.

Buyers who are looking for a greater selection can consider new homes.

New homes offer obvious advantages like trendy finishes and new appliances.

They also often offer attractive incentives like lower mortgage rates.

So, in a time when it feels like there is less to choose from, new homes are a great option.

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New Opportunity

One of the many opportunities for buyers today is new construction.

In Northern Colorado, just under 25% of all available homes for sale are brand new homes.

That percentage is roughly 50% more than normal.

Buyers who are looking for a greater selection can consider new homes.

New homes offer obvious advantages like trendy finishes and new appliances.

They also often offer attractive incentives like lower mortgage rates.

So, in a time when it feels like there is less to choose from, new homes are a great option.

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Who Would Have Guessed?

Pretend it is 2013. The real estate market is clearly recovering from the Great Recession. The Broncos are having a great year and will eventually make it to the Super Bowl.

Now, imagine someone makes a prediction that 10 years in the future mortgage interest rates would double over the course of 12 months.

If you were to guess what sort of impact on house prices that would cause, what would you say?

It would be reasonable to guess that prices would decline if mortgage rates doubled.

Here’s what really happened. Prices kept going up.

Some thought prices would crash. Many thought prices would go down.

They keep going up. Not as fast as they were, but they are still up.

Compared to one year ago, prices are up the following amounts:

Larimer County = 2.6%

Weld County = 2.2%

Metro Denver = 1.1%

Why? Supply and demand.

Supply is low and there is still demand in the market.

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The Listing Solstice

Wednesday marked the first official day of summer and the longest day of the year.

Coincidentally, the research shows us that listings are taking far longer to sell than one year ago.

Specifically, days on market has increased by the following amounts in our market versus exactly one year ago:

 

Larimer County: 210%

Weld County: 100%

Metro Denver: 122%

 

Even though days on market is up significantly over one year ago, properties are selling faster on average than what is considered ‘normal.’

Over the last 10 years, average days on market has been between 70 and 50 days. So, while properties are taking longer to sell versus the market of one year ago, they are still selling much faster than normal.

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High Active

The average price of all active listings is likely much higher than you think.

For example, the average listing price of the nearly 5000 properties for sale in Metro Denver is nearly $1,000,000.

Here is the average price of all active listings along the Front Range:

Larimer County: $886,000

Weld County: $736,000

Metro Denver: $939,000

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