Inventory Solstice

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There is a significant transition that is taking place in the Northern Colorado market.

There is now more inventory on the market at this time of year than at any time since 2020.

2020 marked a turning point in the market where both interest rates and inventory plummeted.

For many years, the market has been working to get back to pre-COVID levels of inventory. 

It finally happened.

However, inventory is still well below 2017, 2018, and 2019 levels.

This means there is nothing resembling a ‘glut’ of inventory.

But, this milestone is significant.

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Mid-Month Check-In

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Here is a look at the Northern Colorado market halfway through June compared to the same time last year.

Inventory is climbing at a healthy rate in both Larimer and Weld County giving more options for buyers.

Larimer County inventory is up 18% and Weld’s is up 13%.

Meanwhile, sales are down slightly which is not surprising because interest rates have been slightly elevated until very recently.

These two factors have caused months of inventory to increase. But, this very important statistic is still measuring below 3 months in both Larimer and Weld Counties, demonstrating there is sufficient demand for the current supply.

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Not Delinquent

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As a sign of the overall health of the U.S. real estate market, single-family mortgages that are ‘seriously delinquent’ only represent 0.51% of all single-family mortgages.

This percentage is lower than last month and lower than last year.

A mortgage is considered ‘seriously delinquent’ if it is more than 90 days past due.

To put the current rate in perspective, in February 2010 5.6% of single-family mortgages were seriously delinquent.

So, today’s number is roughly 10% of the worst time of the housing bubble.

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Been a Long Time

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Highlighting that inventory has been very low for a very long time is the fact that the number of homes available in Northern Colorado today most closely resembles 2015.

It has been almost 10 years since buyers have had the selection that they have now.

Even though inventory is up over last year, and way up since 2021, it is still only half of the long-term average.

So, buyers can enjoy increased selection and sellers can enjoy limited competition.

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Midway Check-In

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We are halfway through May. This is how the numbers stack up versus the exact time last year.

Larimer County:

  • Inventory up 26%
  • Closings down 4%
  • Average Prices up 13%

Weld County:

  • Inventory up 18%
  • Closings up 6%
  • Average Prices down 5%

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More Powerful

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As the saying goes, Superman is more powerful than a steaming locomotive (and able to leap tall buildings in a single bound)!

In real estate, supply and demand is more powerful than interest rates (and able to push price appreciation year after year)!

The fact that prices keep rising in Northern Colorado, even though interest rates are over 7%, is because of one factor- supply and demand.

Supply and demand is most easily measured by months of inventory which considers how long it would take to sell the current inventory at the current pace of sales.

Larimer County has just over two months of supply. Weld County has just under two months.

Fundamentally, while months of inventory stays below four months, prices are pretty much guaranteed to keep going up.

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$700-Plus

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The average price in Larimer County is well over $700,000.

For all closings in April, the numbers came in at $721,000.

People who have lived in Northern Colorado may have a hard time believing that.

The market here has certainly seen significant growth in the last 20 years.

Here is something remarkable about the April numbers.

Of the 300 closings last month in Larimer County, 48 were priced over $1 million and only 16 were under $400,000.

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The Last Decade

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Did you know home values in Larimer County have more than doubled in the last ten years?

Larimer County average prices are up 125% compared to 2014.  Weld County’s are up 134%

Here’s where it gets interesting…

Many people would guess that a significant portion of those gains occurred in the last five years.

However, in Larimer County the last five years of price growth was only slightly higher than the previous five years.

Weld County actually saw more price growth, on a percentage basis, from 2014 to 2019 as compared to 2019 to today.

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The Last Decade

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Did you know home values in Larimer County have more than doubled in the last ten years?

Larimer County average prices are up 125% compared to 2014.  Weld County’s are up 134%

Here’s where it gets interesting…

Many people would guess that a significant portion of those gains occurred in the last five years.

However, in Larimer County the last five years of price growth was only slightly higher than the previous five years.

Weld County actually saw more price growth, on a percentage basis, from 2014 to 2019 as compared to 2019 to today.

The post The Last Decade appeared first on Fort Collins Real Estate | Fort Collins Homes for Sale & Property Search.

Strong Start

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April real estate is off to a strong start in Northern Colorado.

Larimer County sales are up 20% compared to last April. Pending sales are 7% higher.

Weld County sales are up 16% and pendings are up 30%.

This is despite the fact that rates are slightly higher than one year ago.

It looks like a strong spring is in store for NoCo.

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