Case-Shiller

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The Case-Shiller Home Price Index is a well-known report in the real estate industry and a valuable way to gauge what is happening in various markets across the Nation.

The report tracks home price appreciation in the 20 largest markets in the country.

Their most recent report shows that, Nation-wide, home prices are up 2.1% year-over-year. 

Last year prices were rising at 6.3%.  So, prices are still going up but not as fast as they were.

The city with the highest appreciation over the last 12 months is Phoenix with 5.8% growth followed closely by Las Vegas at 5.5%.

Denver came in at 3.4% which makes it tied for 8th place out of the 20 cities.

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A Closing Window

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For home sellers who would like to move to a new home this year, there is a window of time that is closing as we head into the Fall months.

 

Most people know that the Spring and Summer are the most active months for real estate and that activity trails off into the Fall and Winter.

Here are the specific numbers behind this…

The number of homes sold along the Front Range in November tends to be between 15% and 29% lower than September.

That means the best window of time for current sellers to obtain a contract from a buyer and close by the end of the year will occur over the next 45 days.

For sellers who have homes on the market today, it is time to ensure that:

  • The home is priced right versus the competition
  • All of the marketing elements are in place
  • It is easy for a buyer to make an offer on the home

 

 

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How Much?

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So how much real estate is sold in Northern Colorado?

As it turns out, a lot!

Last month alone there were 1,099 single family homes that sold in Larimer and Weld Counties

The average price was $429,144 which means the total sales volume for one month was $471,629,129 (almost a half a billion)!

Over the last 12 months, just over $4.5 billion worth of single-family homes have sold.

That’s a lot of real estate!

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On Sale

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With interest rates so low, one could argue that money is essentially on sale.

It’s actually half off.

30-year mortgage rates hit 3.75% which is exactly half of their long term average.

Rates have averaged 7.5% over the last 40 years so today buyers are getting half of that rate.

The “sale” on mortgage rates creates a significant savings in monthly payment because of the 1%/10% rule.

For every 1% change in interest rate, the monthly payment will change roughly 10%.

So when rates go up to 4.75%, a buyer’s payment will be 10% higher.

For example, the principal and interest payment on a $400,000 home with a 20% down payment at today’s rates is $1,482.

If rates were 1% higher, the payments jump up to $1,669.

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What We Notice

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Here are some observations we have about the market right now:

  • Inventory is up, price reductions are up, the length of time to sell a home is up
  • Seller concessions are more prevalent
  • Sellers are more willing to accept contingent offers (especially in higher price ranges)
  • If a home doesn’t sell within a week, it often becomes stigmatized by the market and potential buyers assume there must be something wrong with it
  • Homes that likely would have sold within hours a year ago, are now sitting on the market
  • Condition is super-important as buyers become even more picky
  • Pricing a property correctly on day one is paramount
  • Sellers who over-price their property are finding themselves chasing the market

 

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Home-ownership Rate

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An interesting stat which can give some insight to the national market is the Home-ownership Rate.

It simply looks at the percentage of Americans who own their home instead of rent.

The most recent report from the Census Bureau shows the rate at 64.2%.

Most importantly, this number is showing stability after many years of change.

After many years of hovering around 64%, the Home-ownership Rate started increasing in 1996 and reached as high as 69.5% in 2005.

2008 started several years of declining back to the pre-1996 levels of 64%.

So today it’s back to what seems to be “normal” based the long-term average.

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Compound Effect

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If you have driven on I-25 lately you may have noticed that the Front Range is a popular place.

The projections show that it will only get more popular in the future.

Today, 4.8 million people live along the Front Range from Fort Collins down to Pueblo.

In 2030, just 11 short years from now, 5.7 million people will live here. Yes, that’s almost 1 million more than today.

This is all according to the Colorado State Demographers Office.

While this seems like a big increase, keep in mind that this assumes that population growth occurs at a fairly modest 1.7% per year.

It seems that our state will continue to grow and there will continue to be a demand for housing.

 

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Sign Surprise

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Given how active our market is today and has been over the last few years, many people assume that virtually every home with a “For Sale” sign in the front yard is already under contract.

 

They are surprised to learn that, in most cases, the “For Sale” sign does indeed represent a home that is actively for sale.

 

For example, today in Fort Collins there are 655 single-family homes on the market. 290 of these are under contract and will be closing soon. 365 of these are still active. So, 56% of the signs in Fort Collins are in front of homes that are still available.

 

Here are the specific numbers for each of our Northern Colorado markets:
• Fort Collins = 56%
• Loveland = 57%
• Windsor = 58%
• Greeley = 41%

 

 

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Over List

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A statistic we keep our eye on is the percentage of homes which sell for at least list price.

In a robust, healthy, market with lower inventory, we will frequently see homes selling for their asking price or even higher.

 

Here are the number of sales that occur for list price or higher in each of our major markets:

• Fort Collins = 60%
• Loveland = 60%
• Greeley = 71%
• Windsor = 56%

 

There are a couple of things we notice about these numbers. First, well over half of all sales are for at least list price. This means that a buyer needs to be prepared to make a full price offer (or higher) in most cases. This also means that if a seller is priced right and marketed effectively, they should achieve their asking price.

We also notice that these percentages are lower than one year ago. In 2018 these numbers were 5% to 10% higher in each market. This is good news for buyers of course because the bidding wars are not as intense as last year.

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Where Are The Sales?

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A high-level look at the Northern Colorado region shows that the number of residential sales is down 5.4% in Larimer County and up 4.7% in Weld County. This is simply comparing the number of closings from June 2018 to June 2019 versus June 2017 to June 2018.

 

The high-level look doesn’t tell the whole story. It get’s more interesting when we look at individual Northern Colorado cities and towns:

• Fort Collins = -8.8%
• Loveland = -5.7%
• Greeley = +11.7%
• Windsor = +16%
• Wellington = -16.9%
• Timnath = +44.1%
• Severance = +20.4%
• Johnstown = -18.7%
• Berthoud = +18.1%
• Evans = -14.7%

 

So, what can we learn from this? The areas with increased sales are where there is an abundance of new construction (Timnath and Severance for example).

The areas with decreased sales don’t have an abundance of new construction (Fort Collins for example).

The exceptions to this would be Wellington and Johnstown. It appears that there is price sensitivity to the new construction product now being built in these areas. Given rising costs, builders are challenged to deliver a product under $350,000 in these places.

For instance, in Wellington, between June 2017 and June 2018 there were 137 sales of new homes priced under $350,000. Today there are only 6 new homes on the market at that price point.

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