15-Year Mortgages

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Interest rates have leveled off at around 7% over the last couple of months. Interestingly, the 15-year mortgage is a more reasonable 6.375% right now.

If you are looking for a lower rate and are willing to pay a higher monthly payment, this may be a good option.

The other benefit of a 15-year mortgage is that more of your payment is going toward the principal of your loan. So, on a $400,000 loan, you would reduce your principal loan amount by $16,500 in the first year of your loan.

This compares to a reduction of only $4,000 on a 30-year mortgage during that same period. If you can swing the higher payment, this may be the way to go.

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Fourth of July Slowdown

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Showings during the week of the 4th is one of the slowest periods of the year. This data comes from home builders that track the number of potential Buyers that visit the model homes.  

This same trend is shown in showing data for resale homes. This trend usually only lasts for the week, though, and showings tend to pick back up the second week of July.

The good news is that the buyers that are looking during this week are typically quite serious about finding a home.

We at Windermere hope you have a fun and safe Independence Day holiday weekend!

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Fourth of July Slowdown

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Showings during the week of the 4th is one of the slowest periods of the year. This data comes from home builders that track the number of potential Buyers that visit the model homes.  

This same trend is shown in showing data for resale homes. This trend usually only lasts for the week, though, and showings tend to pick back up the second week of July.

The good news is that the buyers that are looking during this week are typically quite serious about finding a home.

We at Windermere hope you have a fun and safe Independence Day holiday weekend!

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Ninety Eight Percent

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Properties in Northern Colorado sell for 98% of their list price on average.

This single statistic communicates two interesting facts about the market.

First, this is not a market full of desperate sellers who are willing to accept low ball offers.

Second, properties that are priced right are the ones that are selling.

So, if a seller has an appropriate price, they can expect to receive an offer very close to the list price.

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Inventory Solstice

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There is a significant transition that is taking place in the Northern Colorado market.

There is now more inventory on the market at this time of year than at any time since 2020.

2020 marked a turning point in the market where both interest rates and inventory plummeted.

For many years, the market has been working to get back to pre-COVID levels of inventory. 

It finally happened.

However, inventory is still well below 2017, 2018, and 2019 levels.

This means there is nothing resembling a ‘glut’ of inventory.

But, this milestone is significant.

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Mid-Month Check-In

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Here is a look at the Northern Colorado market halfway through June compared to the same time last year.

Inventory is climbing at a healthy rate in both Larimer and Weld County giving more options for buyers.

Larimer County inventory is up 18% and Weld’s is up 13%.

Meanwhile, sales are down slightly which is not surprising because interest rates have been slightly elevated until very recently.

These two factors have caused months of inventory to increase. But, this very important statistic is still measuring below 3 months in both Larimer and Weld Counties, demonstrating there is sufficient demand for the current supply.

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Not Delinquent

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As a sign of the overall health of the U.S. real estate market, single-family mortgages that are ‘seriously delinquent’ only represent 0.51% of all single-family mortgages.

This percentage is lower than last month and lower than last year.

A mortgage is considered ‘seriously delinquent’ if it is more than 90 days past due.

To put the current rate in perspective, in February 2010 5.6% of single-family mortgages were seriously delinquent.

So, today’s number is roughly 10% of the worst time of the housing bubble.

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Been a Long Time

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Highlighting that inventory has been very low for a very long time is the fact that the number of homes available in Northern Colorado today most closely resembles 2015.

It has been almost 10 years since buyers have had the selection that they have now.

Even though inventory is up over last year, and way up since 2021, it is still only half of the long-term average.

So, buyers can enjoy increased selection and sellers can enjoy limited competition.

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Midway Check-In

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We are halfway through May. This is how the numbers stack up versus the exact time last year.

Larimer County:

  • Inventory up 26%
  • Closings down 4%
  • Average Prices up 13%

Weld County:

  • Inventory up 18%
  • Closings up 6%
  • Average Prices down 5%

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More Powerful

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As the saying goes, Superman is more powerful than a steaming locomotive (and able to leap tall buildings in a single bound)!

In real estate, supply and demand is more powerful than interest rates (and able to push price appreciation year after year)!

The fact that prices keep rising in Northern Colorado, even though interest rates are over 7%, is because of one factor- supply and demand.

Supply and demand is most easily measured by months of inventory which considers how long it would take to sell the current inventory at the current pace of sales.

Larimer County has just over two months of supply. Weld County has just under two months.

Fundamentally, while months of inventory stays below four months, prices are pretty much guaranteed to keep going up.

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