Drastically Different

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Recently it seems there are many attempted comparisons being made between today’s real estate market and the 2006-2007 market.

It seems that people fear a repeat of what happened to the market in 2008 and 2009.

Buyers, understandably, want to make smart decisions and don’t want to buy in advance of any downturn.

The reality is this.  There are some similarities between now and the pre-bubble market of 15 years ago.  Namely, prices are appreciating quickly.

However, there is one massive difference.

The inventory of homes for sale right now is drastically different than 15 years ago.

The rules of economics tell us that, in order for prices to crash, demand needs to diminish, supply needs to swell, or some combination of the two.

Here’s the deal.  Supply today is a fraction of what is was 15 years ago.

Homes for sale today:

  • Larimer County = 238
  • Weld County = 226
  • Metro Denver = 2,594

Homes for sale 15 years ago:

  • Larimer County = 2,998
  • Weld County = 1,113
  • Metro Denver = 29,045

The reason why prices flattened and decreased slightly along the Front Range in 2009 is because the National economy had a meltdown and there was a glut of supply.

We do not have anything similar to those same dynamics today.

We are watching the market closely every single day.  While we don’t expect the current pace of appreciation to keep up, we believe inventory levels keep us insulated from any kind of crash.

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Colorado Bound

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The 2020 Census confirms what we already know – Colorado is popular!

It turns out that many people have been Colorado-bound over the last 10 years.

Our state has grown by the equivalent of one Mile High Stadium’s-worth of people each year over the last 10 years.

Here are the numbers:

  • 2020 population is 5.77 million
  • 10-year population increase is 744,000
  • 10-year percentage increase is 14.8%
  • Colorado ranks 21st among all states for population
  • Only 5 states had a larger percentage increase over the last 10 years (Idaho, North Dakota, Nevada, Texas & Utah)

Only 8 states had a larger increase in population over the last 10 years (Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, New York, North Carolina, Texas & Washington

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Colorado Bound

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The 2020 Census confirms what we already know – Colorado is popular!

It turns out that many people have been Colorado-bound over the last 10 years.

Our state has grown by the equivalent of one Mile High Stadium’s-worth of people each year over the last 10 years.

Here are the numbers:

  • 2020 population is 5.77 million
  • 10-year population increase is 744,000
  • 10-year percentage increase is 14.8%
  • Colorado ranks 21st among all states for population
  • Only 5 states had a larger percentage increase over the last 10 years (Idaho, North Dakota, Nevada, Texas & Utah)

Only 8 states had a larger increase in population over the last 10 years (Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, New York, North Carolina, Texas & Washington

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Future of Work

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This week we had the opportunity to hear a presentation by Ed McMahon who is the Senior Fellow for Sustainable Development at the Urban Land Institute.

 

He is a leading expert on the future of housing and development in the United States.

 

He sees that Colorado is positioned to massively benefit from the work from home shift taking place across the Country.

 

Ed cited that only 1 in 10 companies expect employees to come back to the office to work full time.  The believes the future of work is a hybrid model where most employees are mixing their work hours between the company office and their home office.

 

What does this mean for housing demand?

 

Smaller cities (like Denver), suburbs and high-amenity small towns will benefit.

 

He sees that those places with a high quality of life will benefit the most.

 

Bottom line, if people are untethered from their corporate office and can live anywhere, they will choose to live in places that are nice to live.

 

Colorado is certainly high on the list of high-amenity and high-quality places.

 

So, the new work from home dynamic is another reason to be bullish on the future of Colorado real estate.

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Record Highs

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While our temperatures felt like record lows this week, real estate prices have been hitting record highs along the Front Range.

 

Here is the average price for residential sales so far this year in each of our Front Range markets (includes both single-family and multi-family):

 

  • Fort Collins = $567,000
  • Loveland = $449,000
  • Windsor = $537,000
  • Greeley = $376,000
  • Metro Denver = $544,000

 

These prices are generally up 10% or more compared to last year.

 

If you are curious to know what your personal property is worth today, even if you aren’t considering moving any time soon, we are happy to do the research for you.  Just let us know!

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At Windermere Real Estate we are taking Social Distancing very seriously and are following our Safe Showings protocol.

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New Rate Prediction

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Windermere’s Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner has made his new mortgage interest rate prediction for 2021.

 

You can see his breakdown of interest rates and other economic factors by clicking on the image below and watching his newest video.

 

By the end of the year he predicts rates will rise to 3.63%.  By the end of the 3rd quarter, he sees rates at 3.48%.

 

This would be a 0.5% increase by year-end compared to today.

 

What this would mean for home buyers is a 5% higher monthly payment compared to today.

The post New Rate Prediction appeared first on Fort Collins Real Estate | Fort Collins Homes for Sale & Property Search.

New Rate Prediction

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Windermere’s Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner has made his new mortgage interest rate prediction for 2021.

 

You can see his breakdown of interest rates and other economic factors by clicking on the image below and watching his newest video.

 

By the end of the year he predicts rates will rise to 3.63%.  By the end of the 3rd quarter, he sees rates at 3.48%.

 

This would be a 0.5% increase by year-end compared to today.

 

What this would mean for home buyers is a 5% higher monthly payment compared to today.

The post New Rate Prediction appeared first on Fort Collins Real Estate | Fort Collins Homes for Sale & Property Search.

96 Weeks

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Mortgage rates have been below 4% for 96 weeks in a row.

 

Today, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate sits at 3.17%.

 

This is 0.5% lower than January and exactly 1.0% lower than March 2020.

 

Rates recently ended a 31-week streak of being under 3%.

 

Over the last 5 years, rates have averaged 3.8%.

 

Most experts believe that rates will continue to creep higher as the year goes on.

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107 Straight

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According to research from the National Association of Realtors, home prices have appreciated for 107 straight months.

 

The median price in the U.S. is now $309,000.

 

The U.S. region with the highest median price is the West at $461,800. The lowest is in the South at $263,300.

 

All regions showed double-digit price appreciation from one year ago.

 

While prices are going up all across the U.S., inventory is going down. The number of properties for sale has declined for 20 straight months.

 

Low inventory and high demand are causing properties to sell quickly. It now takes an average of 21 days for a property to go under contract compared to 43 days one year ago.

 

So, the dynamics we notice locally are also occurring nationally.

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Enormous Equity

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Hot off the press is the Core Logic Homeowner Equity Report.  This is their quarterly look at what is happening with homeowners’ equity across the country.

Here are the staggering numbers coming out of their research:

  • Collectively, U.S. homeowners with mortgages have realized a $1.5 Trillion gain in equity over the last 12 months.
  • Only 2.8% of all mortgaged properties have negative equity meaning the home is worth less than the loan amount.
  • In Colorado, just 2.5% of homeowners have negative equity.  For comparison, the percentage in Louisiana is 10.7%.

This research is one of many reasons why we don’t see any sort of impending housing crisis like we experienced in 2009.  In the fourth quarter of 2009 for instance, 26% of all homeowners had negative equity.

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