Year to Date

Here is an interesting look at the market year to date versus the same time period in 2022.

Bottom line, the number of transactions is down considerably, and prices are flat to slightly down.

Larimer County = Sales down 17.5%, prices up 0.7%

Weld County = Sales down 29.6%, prices down 2.2%

Metro Denver = Sales down 22.4%, prices down 2.9%

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New Opportunity

One of the many opportunities for buyers today is new construction.

In Northern Colorado, just under 25% of all available homes for sale are brand new homes.

That percentage is roughly 50% more than normal.

Buyers who are looking for a greater selection can consider new homes.

New homes offer obvious advantages like trendy finishes and new appliances.

They also often offer attractive incentives like lower mortgage rates.

So, in a time when it feels like there is less to choose from, new homes are a great option.

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New Opportunity

One of the many opportunities for buyers today is new construction.

In Northern Colorado, just under 25% of all available homes for sale are brand new homes.

That percentage is roughly 50% more than normal.

Buyers who are looking for a greater selection can consider new homes.

New homes offer obvious advantages like trendy finishes and new appliances.

They also often offer attractive incentives like lower mortgage rates.

So, in a time when it feels like there is less to choose from, new homes are a great option.

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Who Would Have Guessed?

Pretend it is 2013. The real estate market is clearly recovering from the Great Recession. The Broncos are having a great year and will eventually make it to the Super Bowl.

Now, imagine someone makes a prediction that 10 years in the future mortgage interest rates would double over the course of 12 months.

If you were to guess what sort of impact on house prices that would cause, what would you say?

It would be reasonable to guess that prices would decline if mortgage rates doubled.

Here’s what really happened. Prices kept going up.

Some thought prices would crash. Many thought prices would go down.

They keep going up. Not as fast as they were, but they are still up.

Compared to one year ago, prices are up the following amounts:

Larimer County = 2.6%

Weld County = 2.2%

Metro Denver = 1.1%

Why? Supply and demand.

Supply is low and there is still demand in the market.

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The Listing Solstice

Wednesday marked the first official day of summer and the longest day of the year.

Coincidentally, the research shows us that listings are taking far longer to sell than one year ago.

Specifically, days on market has increased by the following amounts in our market versus exactly one year ago:

 

Larimer County: 210%

Weld County: 100%

Metro Denver: 122%

 

Even though days on market is up significantly over one year ago, properties are selling faster on average than what is considered ‘normal.’

Over the last 10 years, average days on market has been between 70 and 50 days. So, while properties are taking longer to sell versus the market of one year ago, they are still selling much faster than normal.

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High Active

The average price of all active listings is likely much higher than you think.

For example, the average listing price of the nearly 5000 properties for sale in Metro Denver is nearly $1,000,000.

Here is the average price of all active listings along the Front Range:

Larimer County: $886,000

Weld County: $736,000

Metro Denver: $939,000

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High Active

The average price of all active listings is likely much higher than you think.

For example, the average listing price of the nearly 5000 properties for sale in Metro Denver is nearly $1,000,000.

Here is the average price of all active listings along the Front Range:

Larimer County: $886,000

Weld County: $736,000

Metro Denver: $939,000

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A New Change

There is a new type of change to be prepared for.

One interesting way to track the market is to measure the year-over-year difference in inventory.

Quite simply, this looks at how many homes are available today versus the same time one year ago.

For the past several months in a row, the difference as measured by percentage change, has been significant.

That is because inventory levels between May of 2020 and May of 2022 were rock-bottom low.

For example, inventory in March of this year was up over 120% compared to March 2022.

When measured against historical numbers, inventory in the first half of this year is incredibly low.  But, when measured against the first half of 2022, inventory is significantly higher.

Well, that is about to change because inventory increased in June and July of 2022.

So, now when we look at inventory levels versus a year ago, the percentage change will be more modest.

For example, Northern Colorado inventory today is up only 8% compared to one year ago.

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Not What Many Thought

Despite higher interest rates, prices did not decrease like many people thought. They certainly have not crashed like many thought.

Average prices along the Front Range have seen only a slight decrease versus last year.

The average price in May this year has decreased versus May of last year by:

 

2.5% in Larimer County

3.2% in Weld County

2.8% in Metro Denver

 

When we take a closer look, what is apparent is that average prices have decreased based on the type of properties that are selling versus last year.

Specifically, there were more $1,000,000 – plus homes selling a year ago versus today. Those higher-end transactions in 2022 increased the average price.

In May of 2023, $1,000,000- plus transactions decreased versus May of 2022 by:

 

33% in Larimer County

29% in Weld County

35% in Metro Denver

 

So, we don’t see that prices have gone down. We see that average price has slightly decreased because they aren’t as many luxury sales pulling up the average.

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2.5 Per Household

On average, up and down the Front Range, there are 2.5 people living in each household.

This is an important number to know as you read the stories about census data and population growth.

Obviously, as population grows, housing needs also grow.

For every 100 people added to the population, there needs to be 40 more housing units to accommodate those people.

Those housing units come in all shapes and sizes of course.  Some are for sale and some are for rent.

The projection is that by 2040, Northern Colorado (Larimer and Weld Counties) will have 1,000,000 people which is 300,000 more than today.

So, Northern Colorado needs a total of 120,000 more housing units or 7,000 per year.

Metro Denver will grow by 500,000 people in that same time frame and will need 200,000 more housing units or 12,000 per year.

Big population growth means big growth for housing.

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