Inventory in Perspective

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A significant dynamic in the Front Range market is the relatively low inventory. This is the main reason why prices are stable despite higher rates.

Here is some perspective on the inventory of homes for sale to help give some context.

Today’s inventory is:

  • Half of the long-term average going back 30 years
  • ¼ of the all-time high in 2006
  • 3 times the all-time low of 2021

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Larimer Resilience

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To see the resilience of the Front Range market, look no further than Larimer County.

The average price for closed single-family homes in the month of July was $724,000.

This is only the third time in history Larimer County has exceeded $700,000 for average price in a month.

July’s average price is a whopping 12% higher than February’s average price which was $646,000.

A 12% difference in just a few months is significant in any market.

What makes this increase especially significant is that interest rates have been above 6.5% the entire time.

Higher rates did not keep prices from going higher.

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Tracking Change

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The market is changing. The change is slight, not drastic.

Both potential sellers and potential buyers need to know that the pace of the market has slowed since the Spring.

Here is one way we track this change…

A review of the August numbers shows the pace of sales in each of our Front Range markets:

  •  Larimer County = 18 closings per day
  • Weld County = 16 closings per day
  • Metro Denver = 165 closings per day

Based on the pace of sales, we can determine the inventory of current homes for sale measured in days:

  • Larimer County = 24 days of inventory
  • Weld County = 23 days of inventory
  • Metro Denver = 18 days of inventory

Then we can measure the increase in days of inventory versus April of this year:

  • Larimer County = 26% increase
  • Weld County = 15% increase
  • Metro Denver = 20% increase

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Rebound

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The Case-Shiller Home Price Index tracks appreciation in the 20 largest real estate markets across the U.S.

 

Their most recent quarterly report was just released this week.

 

Metro Denver prices are up over last year by 3.89% which is just slightly higher than the average of the 20 markets.

 

It is interesting to see how the 20 locations have performed since the pre-Great Recession housing peak.

 

Turns out that Denver has done the best out of all the markets.

 

Since 2008, Denver home prices have appreciated 64.9%.  Second-best is Dallas at 55.5% and Seattle is third at 41.2%.

 

Believe it or not, there are markets where average home prices have still not returned to their 2008 levels.

 

Las Vegas is 14.5% below 2008 and Chicago is 12.8% below.

 

These numbers are another indicator of the long-term health and performance of the Front Range market.

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At Windermere Real Estate we are taking Safer at Home and Social Distancing very seriously.  Our people are following our Safe Showings protocol, staying connected to their clients, and providing help wherever needed.

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