Friday Fun Facts – Does the Federal Reserve affect Mortgage Rates?

The federal funds rate and mortgage rates are both types of interest rates, but they operate differently. The Fed directly controls the federal funds rate, which primarily influences short-term interest rates, while mortgage rates are determined by lenders based on long-term bond yields and various economic factors like inflation and market demand. This means that while both rates can move in the same direction, they don’t always do so. For instance, when inflation rises, mortgage lenders may increase rates to protect their returns, even if the Fed lowers its rate. This nuanced relationship reflects differing priorities: the Fed balances inflation with job market stability, while lenders focus on the erosion of their future payments. Historical data supports this divergence, illustrating that Fed rate changes don’t consistently correlate with mortgage rate adjustments.

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Party Like It’s 2018!

 

Just a few months ago most people thought mortgage rates were heading to 5% and now they are back to where they were a year ago.

 

You probably saw this week’s news from the Federal Reserve declaring that they would not raise their Federal Funds rate for the rest of 2019

 

(just three months after saying they would raise rates at least twice this year).

 

While this is big news, even bigger news for mortgage rates is that the 10-year Treasury yield just hit its lowest point since January 2018. One thing we’ve learned from our Chief Economist Matthew Gardner is that mortgage rates follow the 10-year treasury (not necessarily the Fed Funds rate).

 

Last Spring it looked like mortgage rates had bottomed out and they steadily climbed through the Summer and Fall of 2018. It looked certain that they would hit 5% around January.

 

Instead they started dropping. Now with the 10-year Treasury at a 15-month low, they just dropped a little more and they are back to where they were a year ago.

 

Great news for buyers! Party like it’s 2018!

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