Steady Stream

Despite the extraordinarily low amount of standing inventory, it is important to understand there is still a steady stream of new inventory hitting the market.

Inventory is low. That is a reality.

New inventory is coming on the market at essentially the same pace as compared to the last few years. That is also a reality.

Because demand is so high, the inventory doesn’t stay on the market very long.  Residential listings go from ‘Active’ to ‘Pending’ very quickly (assuming they are priced correctly).

Over the course of 2021, there were 66,308 new residential listings that hit the market in Metro Denver.  That is only 5% less than 2020.

Larimer County had 8,342 which is 7% less than 2020.

Weld County had 8,499 which is 5% less than 2020.

While standing inventory is near 50% lower than last year, the stream of new inventory is fairly consistent.

It is time to register for our annual Market Forecast with Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. This year the event will be hosted online on Thursday February 3rd from 11:00 to 12:00.

You can register at www.ColoradoForecast.com

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Standing Low

The standing inventory of residential properties currently for sale is staggeringly low.

The number of active properties for sale is almost 90% below the average for this time of year.

In Metro Denver, there are 1,144 residential properties for sale today.

In Larimer County, there are 136 and in Weld County there are 174. 

Current inventory along the Front Range is essentially half of what it was one year ago.

The low standing inventory bolsters our belief that nothing resembling a decline in housing prices is on the horizon.  The low supply will continue to put upward pressure on prices.

It is time to register for our annual Market Forecast with Chief Economist Matthew Gardner.  This year the event will be hosted online on Thursday February 3rd from 11:00 to 12:00.

You can register at www.ColoradoForecast.com

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Housing Inventory

Many of our clients wonder if the current pace of price growth can continue.  Some even ask if prices will decline this year. 

Based on researching the Case-Shiller Home Price index and the National Association of Realtors home inventory data, there must be at least 6 months of inventory in a market for prices to have any chance of declining. We wrapped up 2021 with about 2 weeks of inventory across Larimer County, Weld County and Metro Denver. This marks a 43%-46% decrease in inventory as compared to December 2020.

The dwindling supply and the rising prices have led to a lot of questions about the future of the housing market. Is there a market crash on the horizon? Is there a housing bubble that’s about the burst? The answer is no. Although it is unlikely that the market can continue at this pace indefinitely, all signs point to a healthy housing market in 2022.

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Lumber Back Up

The price of lumber has jumped back up again and is adding to the cost of new home construction.

Over the past four months, lumber prices have nearly tripled, causing the price of an average new single-family home to increase by more than $18,600.

According to Random Lengths, as of the end of December, the price of framing lumber topped $1,000 per thousand board feet — a 167% increase since late August.

This most recent lumber price upsurge is due to a number of factors, including:

  • Ongoing supply chain disruptions
  • A doubling of tariffs on Canadian lumber imports into the U.S. market that increased price volatility
  • An unusually strong summer wildfire season in the western United States and British Columbia

Predictions on what lumber prices will do during 2022 are mostly pointing to even higher costs for home builders and ultimately, new home buyers.

The post Lumber Back Up appeared first on Fort Collins Real Estate | Fort Collins Homes for Sale & Property Search.

Lumber Back Up

The price of lumber has jumped back up again and is adding to the cost of new home construction.

Over the past four months, lumber prices have nearly tripled, causing the price of an average new single-family home to increase by more than $18,600.

According to Random Lengths, as of the end of December, the price of framing lumber topped $1,000 per thousand board feet — a 167% increase since late August.

This most recent lumber price upsurge is due to a number of factors, including:

  • Ongoing supply chain disruptions
  • A doubling of tariffs on Canadian lumber imports into the U.S. market that increased price volatility
  • An unusually strong summer wildfire season in the western United States and British Columbia

Predictions on what lumber prices will do during 2022 are mostly pointing to even higher costs for home builders and ultimately, new home buyers.

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Record Increase

Home builders have experienced their largest-ever increase in building costs so far in 2021.

This is according to the latest Producer Price Index report.  

Year to date, building costs are up 14.5%.  This amount tops the previous record of 7.1% which occurred in 2008.

Specific materials which have seen significant increases include lumber, drywall and steel.

The price of steel has risen 117% this year.

These material cost increases combined with increases in items like building permits and tap fees are causing home builders to raise their sales prices.

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Price Matters

Almost twice as many sellers now have to drop their list price before a sale compared to July.

In October, 19% of all sales were forced to drop the list price before receiving an offer.  In July it was 10%.

These properties that start out priced too high end up taking four times as long to sell compared to those that are priced right on day one.

The bottom line is this- price matters even in a strong market.

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Average Prices

It’s true, average prices have increased substantially over the last year.

Would you have guessed that Weld County has seen the largest increase along the Front Range?

The specific numbers are below.

As you look at the numbers, it is important to remember that average prices have increased because of appreciation and because there are more higher-end homes that are selling.

The increased volume of high-end transactions has played a big rule in increasing the average price.

Average Price of a Single-Family Home based on closings so far this month:

  • Metro Denver = $675,000
  • Larimer County = $624,000
  • Weld County = $514,000

Average Prices exactly one year ago:

  • Metro Denver = $614,000
  • Larimer County = $549,000
  • Weld County = $417,000

The post Average Prices appeared first on Fort Collins Real Estate | Fort Collins Homes for Sale & Property Search.

Average Prices

It’s true, average prices have increased substantially over the last year.

Would you have guessed that Weld County has seen the largest increase along the Front Range?

The specific numbers are below.

As you look at the numbers, it is important to remember that average prices have increased because of appreciation and because there are more higher-end homes that are selling.

The increased volume of high-end transactions has played a big rule in increasing the average price.

Average Price of a Single-Family Home based on closings so far this month:

  • Metro Denver = $675,000
  • Larimer County = $624,000
  • Weld County = $514,000

Average Prices exactly one year ago:

  • Metro Denver = $614,000
  • Larimer County = $549,000
  • Weld County = $417,000

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Seller Facts

Here are some fun facts about recent home sellers. This research comes from the National Association of Realtors survey of home buyers and sellers:

  • 10 years = the average time recent home sellers have lived in their home. This number has remained essentially unchanged for the last ten years. From 1987 to 2007 the average was 6 years.
  • 89% = the percentage of home sellers who use a Realtor to help sell their home. This has been trending higher over the last 20 years. In 2001, 79% of home sellers used a Realtor. As the transaction gets more and more complex, more sellers seek the help of a Realtor.
  • 75% = the percentage of home sellers who found their Realtor through a personal relationship as opposed to seeking out an agent they didn’t know.
  • 77% = the percentage of home sellers who only interviewed one Realtor for the job of selling their home.

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