Halfway Check

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This is a market which is changing quickly.  We are studying the numbers every day so we can be clear about where the market is heading.

Here is a check on the market halfway through October.

Compared to last October…

  • Available inventory is up 73% in Northern Colorado and up 112% in Metro Denver.  This is significant for buyers who, for years, were challenged with limited selection.
  • Number of closed transactions is down 50% in Northern Colorado and 41% in Metro Denver.  This reflects the fact that fewer buyers are active right now given higher interest rates.

Prices continue to be higher than last year.  They are up 12% in Northern Colorado and 13% in Metro Denver.  We don’t expect double-digit increases to continue, but don’t expect anything like a price crash.

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Rate Bounce

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Rates hit near-historic lows this week and are now at 3.49% for a 30-year mortgage.

There have only been two other times in history when rates have been this low- April 2013 and October 2016.

It’s interesting to see what happened soon after bottoming out these last two times.

In April of 2013 rates hit 3.41%. By August 2013 they had jumped to 4.40%.

Rates bottomed again in October 2016 at 3.42%. Just two months later in December 2016 they were 4.32%.

Each time the increase was nearly 1% within just a few months.

So, if history proves itself as a guide, we can’t expect these rates to last for long.

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On Sale

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With interest rates so low, one could argue that money is essentially on sale.

It’s actually half off.

30-year mortgage rates hit 3.75% which is exactly half of their long term average.

Rates have averaged 7.5% over the last 40 years so today buyers are getting half of that rate.

The “sale” on mortgage rates creates a significant savings in monthly payment because of the 1%/10% rule.

For every 1% change in interest rate, the monthly payment will change roughly 10%.

So when rates go up to 4.75%, a buyer’s payment will be 10% higher.

For example, the principal and interest payment on a $400,000 home with a 20% down payment at today’s rates is $1,482.

If rates were 1% higher, the payments jump up to $1,669.

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Home-ownership Rate

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An interesting stat which can give some insight to the national market is the Home-ownership Rate.

It simply looks at the percentage of Americans who own their home instead of rent.

The most recent report from the Census Bureau shows the rate at 64.2%.

Most importantly, this number is showing stability after many years of change.

After many years of hovering around 64%, the Home-ownership Rate started increasing in 1996 and reached as high as 69.5% in 2005.

2008 started several years of declining back to the pre-1996 levels of 64%.

So today it’s back to what seems to be “normal” based the long-term average.

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Which Market?

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So, which is it? A buyer’s market or a seller’s market?

 

Well, it depends!

First, let’s define each market. According to research, a buyer’s market exists when there is more than 4-6 months of inventory on the market.

If it would take longer than 4-6 months to sell out all of the inventory currently for sale, then it is a buyer’s market.

This calculation is obviously a function of the amount of inventory on the market and the current pace of sales.

A seller’s market exists if it would take shorter than 4-6 months.

So, which is it?

It depends very much on the price range.

Here are the numbers for Northern Colorado:

• $300,000 to $400,000 = 0.9 months
• $400,000 to $500,000 = 1.9 months
• $500,000 to $750,000 = 2.3 months
• $750,000 and over = 5.8 months

So, most price ranges are a clear seller’s market. It’s not until $750,000 and over that the market starts to approach a more balanced state.

Here’s one more thing that might help you…

You probably don’t need a reminder that this is tax season.

Not only because tax returns are due in two weeks but also because you will soon receive your property tax notification in the mail.

Every two years your County re-assesses the value of your property and then sends that new value to you.

When this happens, many of our clients:

  • Don’t agree with the new assessed value
  • Aren’t sure what to do
  • Are confused by the process
  • Want to save money on property taxes

Good news! We have a webinar that will help you. On the webinar we will show you:

  • How to read the information from the County
  • What it means for you
  • How to protest the valuation if you want
  • How to get an accurate estimate of your property’s value

You can listen to the webinar live or get the recording. In any case, you can sign up at www.WindermereWorkshop.com

The webinar is April 17th at 10:00. If you can’t join live, go ahead and register so you can automatically receive the recording.

This is a complimentary online workshop for all of our clients. We hope you can join!

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Waiting and Waiting

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Anytime the market cools off we sometimes hear prospective buyers say “I think I’ll wait for the market to correct, then I’ll buy after prices come way down.”

The reality is this… History shows that this wouldn’t be a good strategy.

Our go-to source on price appreciation is the Federal Housing Finance Authority who produces a quarterly home price index.  They have been tracking Larimer County for 41 years.

Their numbers show:

  • Yearly prices have decreased only 6 times in history
  • The average amount of that decrease is only 1.7%

So, someone who is waiting for prices to drop:

  • Might be waiting a long time
  • Might be disappointed that prices didn’t drop by all that much

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83 Miles Per Hour

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Pretend you have been driving on the Interstate at 100 miles per hour. 

Also, pretend you have been doing that for a long time.

Now pretend you slow down to 83 miles per hour.

How would that feel?

It would probably feel slow, right?

83 miles per hour is a 17% decrease from 100. It may feel slow, but it’s still pretty fast.

How does this relate to real estate?

Well, the market has been moving fast for a long time.

It’s been going 100 miles per hour for at least two years (some would argue even longer).

We’ve recently seen a 17% change in terms of number of transactions that are occurring.

There were 17% fewer sales in October 2018 versus October 2017 in Metro Denver.

It feels slow because we’ve been driving so fast for so long. But, our market is still moving.

For example, prices are still up. So, remember, that it’s all relative.

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Good News for Buyers

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Here’s some good news for buyers who have been waiting for more selection…

No need to wait any more because the numbers show that more new listings are hitting the market compared to the recent past.

In Metro Denver, the number of homes for sale is up 14.42% compared to last year. 

That equates to 800 more homes to choose from.

Start spreading the news!

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A History Lesson

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One of the most common questions we hear from clients is “Where do you think interest rates are going?”

Virtually all of the experts we follow put rates above 5% going into next year and some see rates approaching 5.5% by the middle of 2019. What’s certain is that there are economic forces at work that are pushing rates higher.

So, how about a little history lesson? How do today’s 30- year mortgage rates compare to this same date in history going all the way back to 1990?

• Today = 4.85%
• 2017 = 3.94%
• 2015 = 3.82%
• 2010 = 4.27%
• 2005 = 5.98%
• 2000 = 7.84%
• 1995 = 7.75%
• 1990 = 10.22%

While today’s rates feel high only because they are higher than 2017, they are quite a bit lower than at many times in history.

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The Cost of Waiting

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It’s true, certain parts of our market are cooling off. We are seeing fewer multiple offers, fewer bidding wars, and fewer inspection concessions.
However, homes that are priced right and in great condition are selling, and in many cases, selling quickly.

As buyers feel the market cool a bit, it may cause them to want to wait. They sometimes feel like it’s a better choice to ‘wait and see what happens.’

The reality is, there is a real cost to waiting given two specific facts.

1. Interest rates will continue to rise
2. Prices will continue to rise

Interest rates are a little more than 0.5% higher than a year ago and experts predict them to be another 0.5% higher by this time next year.

Prices have been appreciating at roughly 10% per year for the last four years. Based on the numbers, we see that appreciation could be 5% per year for the next two years.

So, let’s look at a house priced at $450,000 today. If prices go up “only” 5% for the next 12 months, that home will cost $22,500 more in a year.

And, if rates go up another half percent, the monthly payment will be $206 higher. That’s an 11% increase!

In an environment of rising prices and rising rates, there is a real cost to “wait and see.”

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