Forecast Takeaways

Here are some of the big takeaways from our annual Market Forecast with Economist Matthew Gardner:

  • Interest rates will continue to trend down during the year and reach 6.08% by the end of 2024.
  • Home prices will have another year of modest gains increasing 2.0% to 2.5% in Northern Colorado
  • 53% of homeowners in Larimer County and 38% of homeowners in Weld County are “Equity Rich” meaning that they have at least 50% equity in their homes.
  • Inventory levels will increase in 2024 but will remain below normal which protects prices from any sort of major decline

To receive a copy of the full slide deck from the Forecast, feel free to reach out to us!

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$44 Trillion

Have you ever wondered how much all of the residential real estate in the U.S. is worth?

It’s $44.5 trillion.

That’s 44 with 12 zeroes after it.

This data comes from the Federal Reserve’s Quarterly “Z.1” report.

The total valuation increased by $2.4 Trillion over the last quarter and is essentially flat compared to one year ago.

In total, liabilities on residential properties (mortgages, equity loans, etc.) is $12.9 trillion.

So, collectively, residential property owners in the U.S. have a 71% equity share and owe 29% of the value.

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$44 Trillion

Have you ever wondered how much all of the residential real estate in the U.S. is worth?

It’s $44.5 trillion.

That’s 44 with 12 zeroes after it.

This data comes from the Federal Reserve’s Quarterly “Z.1” report.

The total valuation increased by $2.4 Trillion over the last quarter and is essentially flat compared to one year ago.

In total, liabilities on residential properties (mortgages, equity loans, etc.) is $12.9 trillion.

So, collectively, residential property owners in the U.S. have a 71% equity share and owe 29% of the value.

The post $44 Trillion appeared first on Fort Collins Real Estate | Fort Collins Homes for Sale & Property Search.

With a “T”

One of the reasons we are so confident about the long-term health of the market is because of the equity that exists in peoples’ homes today.

Because there is so much equity, there are very few homeowners who are ‘underwater’ with a loan that is more than the actual value of the property.

According to the latest ‘Homeowner Equity Insights’ report from CoreLogic, only 2.3% of all homes are ‘underwater’ with negative equity.

To put that in perspective, in the fourth quarter of 2009, 26% of all mortgaged properties had negative equity.

Nationally, homeowner equity has increased by $2.9 Trillion during the last 12 months (that’s Trillion with a ‘T’)!

Locally, only 1.4% of Colorado mortgage holders have negative equity, which is one of the lowest rates in the Country.

What this all means is very, very few distressed sales and overall health in the real estate market.

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Enormous Equity

Hot off the press is the Core Logic Homeowner Equity Report.  This is their quarterly look at what is happening with homeowners’ equity across the country.

Here are the staggering numbers coming out of their research:

  • Collectively, U.S. homeowners with mortgages have realized a $1.5 Trillion gain in equity over the last 12 months.
  • Only 2.8% of all mortgaged properties have negative equity meaning the home is worth less than the loan amount.
  • In Colorado, just 2.5% of homeowners have negative equity.  For comparison, the percentage in Louisiana is 10.7%.

This research is one of many reasons why we don’t see any sort of impending housing crisis like we experienced in 2009.  In the fourth quarter of 2009 for instance, 26% of all homeowners had negative equity.

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Million Plussing

Luxury

The luxury market is very active right now.  Buyers in the high-end are taking advantage of low interest rates and the equity they have built in their prior homes.

Closings of million-plus single family homes are up significantly along the Front Range.

When compared to this same time last year, sales of properties in this price range are up:

  • 87% in Metro Denver
  • 150% in Larimer County
  • 67% in Weld County

Windermere Real Estate in Colorado recently hosted a private online event for our clients with our very own Chief Economist Matthew Gardner.  We would be happy to send you the recording if you would like.

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Our Commitment to Change: A Message to Our Community

For nearly 50 years Windermere has been deeply rooted in the communities where we do business. However, the resurgence of the Black Lives Matter movement has made us realize that our roots don’t extend as deep as we thought. It also made us realize that over the decades, the real estate industry has played a significant role in exacerbating systemic racism through redlining and steering, which has prevented many members of historically marginalized communities from building wealth through homeownership.
This summer, we began a robust diversity, equity, and inclusion journey supported by an organization called Moving Beyond that specializes in helping companies integrate and operationalize DEI. Next, we formed two internal workgroups, with a diverse makeup of Windermere franchise owners, managers, agents, and staff to guide and implement DEI efforts across our 10-state organization.
Following three months of collective conversations, we have identified several short- and long-term initiatives on which to focus – all with the aim of building a diverse organization that fosters a sense of belonging and provides equal opportunity across all aspects of homeownership for people of color. Some of these activities can be acted upon right away, as we develop a long-term strategic direction for our DEI efforts.
We’re committed and in it for the long haul, and believe transparency is a critical part of this journey, so here is an update about our goals and progress thus far:
● In August, we conducted an internal survey among our owners, managers, and staff, to create a benchmark of where we are as a company and help guide the direction that we need to take to advance our DEI initiatives. An agent survey is forthcoming in 2021.
● We are producing informational content related to CC&Rs to educate homeowners on how to remove racially restrictive language from their title reports in the 10 states where Windermere operates.
● We are working with an advertising agency that specializes in inclusive and future-forward marketing to evaluate our digital marketing products through a DEI lens.
● We have designated funds for a scholarship program that invests in people of color who want to work in real estate, and are designing training and mentoring programs to aid in their success.
● We are building internal DEI training and development programs, starting with franchise owners, managers, and staff, with plans to expand to agents in 2021.
● We are analyzing our hiring processes to ensure broader representation by people of color.
● We’re generating insights from all these efforts to help us develop a set of thematic pillars to guide our DEI goals and strategy over the long term.
● We’re planning on listening sessions this fall for the Windermere community to continue to have input in this process.
This is just the beginning of what we know will be a long-term journey of awareness and accountability. We are focused and determined to do our part to address discrimination, racism, and inequity within Windermere and the real estate industry. Our efforts stem from the recognition that there is a long history of housing discrimination in the United States and that the inequality in homeownership has deepened the racial divide. Through our work, we hope to play a role in finding ways to correct these inequalities. We realize we were late to this movement and should’ve spoken up sooner, but our eyes are open, and we are committed to leading the way towards positive change from here on out.

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Bubble Burst

Every so often we will hear a concern that another housing bubble is forming.

To help answer that question it’s valuable to look at the reasons that caused the last one.

There were three main drivers of the bubble that burst in 2008:

  1. Easy Credit – loans were very easy to attain
  2. Over-Leverage – people were using their homes at ATM’s
  3. Over-Supply – too many new homes were being built

Now, let’s compare that to today:

  1. Stricter Credit – the average home buyer today has a FICO score of 755
  2. High Equity – collectively, U.S. homeowners have $19 Trillion of equity in their homes and collective mortgage debt has not increased for 13 years
  3. Under-Supply – today we are building only two-thirds of the new homes being built in 2004 yet the population is much higher

Given this healthy information, we don’t see another housing bubble forming today.

If you would like to see a video recap of our annual Market Forecast you can watch that HERE.

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Equity Insights

The real estate research firm Core Logic just produced their latest Homeowner Equity Insights report.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Some interesting tidbits:

·         63% of all properties nationally have a mortgage

·         Homeowners with mortgages collective realized a $428 billion rise in equity over last year, an increase of 4.8%

·         Only 3.8% of all mortgaged properties have negative equity (where the loan is greater than the value of the home)

·         10 years ago 26% of all mortgaged properties had negative equity

 


If you want to see even more insights about the Colorado market so that you can make really good decisions about your real estate, you are welcome to watch this complimentary webinar, just click HERE.

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