Colorado Real Estate Market Update

 

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market (which now includes Clear Creek, Gilpin, and Park Counties) is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent.

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

The Colorado economy continues to perform quite well, having added 72,200 non-agricultural jobs over the past 12 months — a solid growth rate of 2.7%. Through the first eight months of 2018, the state has added an average of 6,700 new jobs per month. There has been a modest slowdown in employment gains, but I really don’t think this is a cause for concern and still hold to my forecast that Colorado will add a total of 82,000 new jobs by the end of 2018.

In August, the state unemployment rate was 2.9%. This matches the level seen a year ago. Unemployment rates in all the markets contained in this report rose between August 2017 and August 2018 but this is not actually a concern. Growth in the workforce is not only due to recent college graduates, but also discouraged workers who are starting to look for work again and this puts upward pressure on the unemployment rate. All of Colorado’s metropolitan areas are showing unemployment rates at around 4% or lower, suggesting that the regional economies are at, or close to, full employment.

HOME SALES ACTIVITY

  • In the third quarter of 2018, 16,550 homes sold — a drop of 6.2% compared to the third quarter of 2017.
  • Sales rose in just two of the 11 counties contained in this report. Gilpin County again led the way, with sales rising by an impressive 21.1% compared to third quarter of last year. There was also a significant increase in Clear Creek County. Sales fell the most in Arapahoe County.
  • Slowing sales in the quarter can, to a degree, be attributed to continued home price growth, but I believe it is more a function of the rapid rise in the number of homes for sale. The number of listings in third quarter rose by 5.4% over the same period in 2017, but was up by 31.2% compared to the second quarter of this year.
  • What the numbers are telling us is that inventory growth is giving buyers more choice and they are being far more selective — and patient — before making an offer on a home.

 

HOME PRICES

  • Even with the rapid rise in listings and slowing home sales, prices continue to trend higher. The average home price in the region rose 7.9% year-over-year to $460,982. However, the average price dropped 4% between second and third quarters.
  • The smallest price gains in the region were in Park County, where prices rose by a fairly modest 3.6%.
  • Appreciation was strongest in Clear Creek County, where prices rose 10%. All other counties in this report saw gains relative to the third quarter of 2017.
  • Affordability is becoming an issue in many Colorado markets and this, in concert with rising inventory levels, has started to dampen home price growth. Although I do not expect prices to drop, I do think price gains will moderate over the next few quarters.

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home in Colorado remained at the same level as a year ago.
  • The amount of time it took to sell a home dropped in three counties: Gilpin, Clear Creek, and Larimer. The rest of the counties in this report saw days on market rise by only a couple of days or less.
  • In the third quarter of 2018, it took an average of 24 days to sell a home. It took less than a month to sell a home in all but one county.
  • Housing demand is still solid and, as long as homes are priced appropriately, they will continue to sell in less time than historic averages.

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

For the third quarter of 2018, I continue the trend that I started last quarter and have moved the needle a little more in favor of buyers. Listings are likely to continue their rising trend, but we should still see a seasonal drop off during the winter months. The market is clearly headed toward balance, which I am very pleased to see.

 

Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

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Planning for the Life Expectancy of Your Home

 

Nothing in life lasts forever – and the same can be said for your home. From the roof to the furnace, every component of your home has a lifespan, so it’s a good idea to know approximately how many years of service you can expect from them. This information can help when buying or selling your home, budgeting for improvements, and deciding between repairing or replacing when problems arise.

According to a National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) study, the average life expectancy of some home components has decreased over the past few decades.  (This might explain why you’re on your third washing machine while Grandma still has the same indestructible model you remember from childhood.) But the good news is the lifespan of many other items has actually increased in recent years.

Here’s a look at the average life spans of some common home components (courtesy of NAHB).

Appliances. Of all home components, appliances have the widest variation in life spans. These are averages for all brands and models and may represent the point which replacing is more cost-effective than repairing. Among major appliances, gas ranges have the longest life expectancy, at about 15 years. Electric ranges, standard-size refrigerators, and clothes dryers last about 13 years, while garbage disposals grind away for about 10 years. Dishwashers, microwave ovens, and mini-refrigerators can all be expected to last about nine years. For furnaces, expect a lifespan of about 15 years for electric, 18 for gas, and 20 for oil-burning models. Central air-conditioning systems generally beat the heat for 10 to 15 years.

Kitchen & Bath. Countertops of wood, tile, and natural stone will last a lifetime, while cultured marble will last about 20 years. The lifespan of laminate countertops depends greatly on the use and can be 20 years or longer. Kitchen faucets generally last about 15 years.  An enamel-coated steel sink will last five to 10 years; stainless will last at least 30 years; and slate, granite, soapstone, and copper should endure 100 years or longer. Toilets, on average, can serve at least 50 years (parts such as the flush assembly and seat will likely need replacing), and bathroom faucets tend to last about 20 years.

Flooring. Natural flooring materials provide longevity as well as beauty: Wood, marble, slate, and granite should all last 100 years or longer, and tile, 74 to 100 years. Laminate products will survive 15 to 25 years, linoleum about 25 years, and vinyl should endure for about 50 years. Carpet will last eight to 10 years on average, depending on use and maintenance.

Siding, Roofing, Windows. Brick siding normally lasts 100 years or longer, aluminum siding about 80 years, and stucco about 25 years. The lifespan of wood siding varies dramatically – anywhere from 10 to 100 years – depending on the climate and level of maintenance. For roofs, slate or tile will last about 50 years, wood shingles can endure 25 to 30 years, the metal will last about 25 years, and asphalts got you covered for about 20 years. Unclad wood windows will last 30 years or longer, aluminum will last 15 to 20 years, and vinyl windows should keep their seals for 15 to 20 years.

Of course, none of these averages matter if you have a roof that was improperly installed or a dishwasher that was a lemon right off the assembly line. In these cases, early replacement may be the best choice. Conversely, many household components will last longer than you need them to, as we often replace fully functional items for cosmetic reasons, out of a desire for more modern features, or as a part of a quest to be more energy efficient.

Are extended warranties warranted?

Extended warranties, also known as service contracts or service agreements, are sold for all types of household items, from appliances to electronics. They cover service calls and repairs for a specified time beyond the manufacturer’s standard warranty. Essentially, warranty providers (manufacturers, retailers, and outside companies) are betting that a product will be problem-free in the first years of operation, while the consumer who purchases a warranty is betting against reliability.

Warranty providers make a lot of money on extended warranties, and Consumers Union, which publishes Consumer Reports, advises against purchasing them.  You will have to consider whether the cost is worth it to you; for some, it brings a much-needed peace of mind when making such a large purchase. Also, consider if it the cost outweighs the value of the item; in some cases, it may be less expensive to just replace a broken appliance than pay for insurance or a warranty.

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Charming Brick Ranch in Loveland!

This adorable brick ranch at 906 Heather Dr offers plenty of space and a large yard with mature trees. The main floor has beautiful original hardwood floors, 3 bedrooms, and a large covered deck right off of the dining area. Both the main floor and the basement have wood burning fireplaces and full bathrooms. The basement has 2 bedrooms, one is non-conforming, and a large family room. Newer roof and ready to move into. Contact Meagan Griesel for your private showing at 970-691-0056 for more information or click the link below for more details. 

http://windermerenoco.com/listing/87317866

 

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Colorado Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market (which now includes Clear Creek, Gilpin, and Park Counties) is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent.

 

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Colorado continues to see very strong job growth, adding 72,800 non-agricultural jobs over the past 12 months—an impressive increase of 2.7%. Through the first five months of 2018, the state added an average of 7,300 new jobs per month. I expect this growth to continue through the remainder of the year, resulting in about 80,000 new jobs in 2018.

In May, the state unemployment rate was 2.8%. This is slightly above the 2.6% we saw a year ago but still represents a remarkably low level. Unemployment remains either stable or is dropping in all the markets contained in this report, with the lowest reported rates in Fort Collins and Boulder, where just 2.2% of the labor force was actively looking for work. The highest unemployment rate was in Grand Junction, which came in at 3.1%.

 

HOME SALES ACTIVITY

  • In the second quarter of 2018, 17,769 homes sold—a drop of 2.4% compared to the second quarter of 2017.
  • Sales rose in 5 of the 11 counties contained in this report, with Gilpin County sales rising by an impressive 10.7% compared to second quarter of last year. There were also noticeable increases in Clear Creek and Weld Counties. Sales fell the most in Park County but, as this is a relatively small area, I see no great cause for concern at this time.
  • Slowing sales activity is to be expected given the low levels of available homes for sale in many of the counties contained in this report. That said, we did see some significant increases in listing activity in Denver and Larimer Counties. This should translate into increasing sales through the summer months.
  • The takeaway here is that sales growth is being hobbled by a general lack of homes for sale, and due to a drop in housing demand.

 

 

HOME PRICES

  • With strong economic growth and a persistent lack of inventory, prices continue to trend higher. The average home price in the region rose
    9.8% year-over-year to $479,943.
  • The smallest price gains in the region were in Park County, though the increase there was still a respectable 7%.
  • Appreciation was strongest in Clear Creek and Gilpin Counties, where prices rose by 28.9% and 26%, respectively. All other counties in this report saw gains above the long-term average.
  • Although there was some growth in listings, the ongoing imbalance between supply and demand persists, driving home prices higher.

 

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home remained at the same level as a year ago.
  • The length of time it took to sell a home dropped in most markets contained in this report. Gilpin County saw a very significant jump in days on market, but this can be attributed to the fact that it is a very small area which makes it prone to severe swings.
  • In the second quarter of 2018, it took an average of 24 days to sell a home. Of note is Adams County, where it took an average of only 10 days to sell a home.
  • Housing demand remains very strong and all the markets in this report continue to be in dire need of additional inventory to satisfy demand.

 

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

For the second quarter of 2018, I have moved the needle very slightly towards buyers as a few counties actually saw inventories rise. However, while I expect to see listings increase in the coming months, for now, the housing market continues to heavily favor sellers.

 

Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

The post Colorado Real Estate Market Update appeared first on Fort Collins Real Estate | Fort Collins Homes for Sale & Property Search.

Colorado Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact me.

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

It’s good news for the state of Colorado, which saw annual employment grow in all of the metropolitan markets included in this report. The state added 63,400 non-agricultural jobs over the past 12 months, an impressive growth rate of 2.4%. Colorado has been adding an average of 5,300 new jobs per month for the past year, and I anticipate that this growth rate will continue through the balance of 2018.

In February, the unemployment rate in Colorado was 3.0%—a level that has held steady for the past six months. Unemployment has dropped in all the markets contained in this report, with the lowest reported rates in Fort Collins and Denver, where 3.1% of the labor force was actively looking for work. The highest unemployment rate was in Grand Junction, which came in at 4.6%.

HOME SALES ACTIVITY

  • In the first quarter of 2018, there were 11,173 home sales—a drop of 5.6% when compared to the first quarter of 2017.
  • With an increase of 5.3%, home sales rose the fastest in Boulder County, as compared to first quarter of last year. There was also a modest sales increase of 1.2% in Larimer County. Sales fell in all the other counties contained within this report.
  • Home sales continue to slow due to low inventory levels, which were down 5.7% compared to a year ago.
  • The takeaway here is that sales growth continues to stagnate due to the lack of homes for sale.

HOME PRICES

  • Strong economic growth, combined with limited inventory, continued to push prices higher. The average home price in the markets covered by this report was up by 11.7% year-over-year to $448,687.
  • Arapahoe County saw slower appreciation in home values, but the trend is still positiveand above its long-term average.
  • Appreciation was strongest in Boulder County, which saw prices rise 14.8%. Almost all other counties in this report experienced solid gains.
  • The ongoing imbalance between supply and demand persists and home prices continue to appreciate at above-average rates.

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home dropped by three days when compared to the first quarter of 2017.
  • Homes in all but two counties contained in this report took less than a month to sell. Adams County continues to stand out where it took an average of just 17 days to sell a home.
  • During the first quarter, it took an average of 27 days to sell a home. That rate is down 2 days from the fourth quarter of 2017.
  • Housing demand remains strong and would-be buyers should expect to see stiff competition for well-positioned, well-priced homes.

 

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s housing market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors. In the first quarter of 2018, I have left the needle where it was in the fourth quarter of last year. Even as interest rates trend higher, it appears as if demand will continue to outweigh supply. As we head into the spring months, I had hoped to see an increase in the number of homes for sale, but so far that has not happened. As a result, the housing market continues to heavily favor sellers.

Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

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Beautiful Home in the Heart of Windsor!

This beautifully updated home at  807 Table Mountain Ct located in central Windsor boasts new paint, new carpet, and new windows with updated flooring in the kitchen and bathroom. Move in ready, this home has a large and bright living space connecting to the kitchen with an eat in dining space. The lower level has a large master suite with walk-in closet, custom shelving and remodeled master bath. Enjoy the lower level room for additional living space, office or workout room. Call Jacqueline Feil for your private showing at 970-402-7509 or click the link below for more details.

http://windermerenoco.com/listing/79091432

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52.8 Acres of Land in Fort Collins!

With endless mountain views at 6015 S Timberline Rd .  This underdeveloped site is an incredible investment/development opportunity. Located in a prime location in Fort Collins, it is currently zoned FA1. Surrounding properties have been rezoned to LMN, with all multifamily development. Backs to Southridge golf course. No showings of the house until under contract. Also available for purchase at market value are 10 shares of CBT and 1 share of New Mercer Ditch. $500K of water rights. Call Kyle Basnar for more information at 970-481-5689 or click the link below for more details.

http://windermerenoco.com/listing/77374327

 

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Nationally Speaking

Here are some interesting stats on the national real estate market shared by Windermere’s Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner at our Market Forecast two weeks ago:

  • The Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which tracks 20 markets around the country, is still 12% below it’s 2005 peak when adjusted for inflation.
  • New Home starts in 2018 are projected to be 900,000. In 2005 there were 1.7 million.
  • The average length of time someone lives in a home is now at 8.2 years. In the year 2000 it was 4.2 years.

The homeownership rate now sits at 64% which is 1% below the long-term average. In 2005 it spiked to almost 70%

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Colorado Real Estate Market Update

This analysis of the Metro Denver and Northern Colorado real estate markets is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact us.

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Colorado added 45,300 non-agricultural jobs over the past 12 months, a growth rate of 1.7%. Although that is a respectable number, employment growth has been trending lower in 2017 as the state reaches full employment. Within the metropolitan market areas included in this report, there was annual employment growth in all areas other than Grand Junction, where employment was modestly lower. There was solid growth in Greeley and Fort Collins, where annual job growth was measured at 4% and 2.7%, respectively.

In November, the unemployment rate in the state was a remarkably low 2.9%, down from 3% a year ago. The lowest reported unemployment rates were seen in Fort Collins and Boulder, where only 2.5% of the labor force was actively looking for work. The highest unemployment rate (3.7%) was in Grand Junction.

The state economy has been performing very well, which is why the wage growth over the past year has averaged a very solid 3.3%. I expect the labor market to remain tight and this will lead to wages rising at above-average rates through 2018.

HOME SALES ACTIVITY

  • In the fourth quarter of 2017, there were 14,534 home sales—a drop of 2.0% compared to a year ago.
  • Sales again rose the fastest in Boulder County, which saw sales grow 17.9% versus the third quarter of 2016. There were also reasonable increases in Weld and Larimer Counties. Sales fell in all other counties contained within this report because there is such a shortage of available homes for sale.
  • As I discussed in my third quarter report, sales slowed due to the lack of homes for sale. The average number of homes for sale in the markets in this report is down by 8.2% from the fourth quarter of 2016.
  • The takeaway is that sales growth has moderated due to the lack of homes for sale.

HOME PRICES

  • With continued competition for the limited number of available homes, prices continued their upward trend. Average prices were up 9.8% year-over-year to a regional average of $431,403, which was slightly higher than the third quarter of 2017.
  • There was slower appreciation in home values in Boulder County, but the trend is still positive.
  • Appreciation was strongest in Weld County, which saw prices rise 14.3%. There were also solid gains in almost all other counties considered in this report.
  • The ongoing imbalance between supply and demand persists, which means we can expect home prices to continue appreciating at above-average rates for the foreseeable future.

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home rose by two days when compared to the fourth quarter of 2016.
  • Homes in all but three counties contained in this report took less than a month to sell. Adams County continues to stand out, where it took an average of just 21 days for homes to sell.
  • It took an average of 29 days to sell a home last quarter. This is up nine days over the third quarter of 2017.
  • Housing demand remains strong in Colorado and this will continue with well-positioned, well-priced homes continuing to sell very quickly.

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s housing market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

For the fourth quarter of 2017, I have chosen to leave the needle where it was in the previous quarter. Listings remain scarce, but this did not deter buyers who are still active in the market. As much as I want to see more balance between supply and demand, I believe the market will remain supply-constrained as we move toward the spring, which will continue to heavily favor sellers.

Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

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Get Real

A story ran this week which highlighted the number of people who have moved out of Colorado.

Let’s get real, there are still a large number of people moving to Colorado.

In fact, 223,000 moved to Colorado from another state last year according to the latest American Community Survey from the U.S. Census Bureau.

The net migration into our state (after subtracting out people who left) was 30,859 people.

In Northern Colorado the net migration looks like this:

  • Larimer County = 7,001 people
  • Weld County = 7,117 people

So what does that mean for housing? Knowing that, on average, 2.5 people live in each household, the number of new housing units required for these new residents looks like this:

  • Larimer County = 2,800 new housing units
  • Weld County = 2,847 new housing units

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