Windermere Principal Economist Jeff Tucker analyzes the National Association of REALTORS’ September U.S. home sales report, what the findings say about the current housing market, and why mortgage rates have been rising in recent weeks.
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Today’s inventory of residential properties along the Front Range is…
Double what it was in 2021 (the all-time low)
Half of the long-term average (going back to 1985)
One-fifth of what it was in 2006 (the all-time high)
The post Double, Half, Fifth appeared first on Fort Collins Real Estate | Fort Collins Homes for Sale & Property Search.
As measured by months of supply, we have a strong Seller’s market in Northern Colorado.
Both Larimer County and Weld County measure at 1.6 months of supply.
That means, at the current pace of sales, it would take only about 6 weeks to sell all of the existing homes for sale.
The measurement becomes even more interesting when we look at specific price ranges.
Under $500,000 is 1.0 months in Larimer and 0.9 in Weld.
$500,000 to $700,000 is 1.6 months in Larimer and 2.0 in Weld.
$700,000 to $1,000,000 is 2.0 months in Larimer and 3.0 in Weld.
And, over $1,000,000 is 3.6 months in Larimer and 5.3 in Weld.
We are not surprised to see higher months of inventory in higher price ranges.
It is interesting that even $1,000,000 properties have less than 6 months.
The post Months of Supply appeared first on Fort Collins Real Estate | Fort Collins Homes for Sale & Property Search.
This week’s fun fact is that you just received your new valuation from your County Assessor and you have until June 8th to protest the value.
By statute, properties in Colorado are re-assessed every two years and owners are given their new Assessed Valuation in early May.
This year, many Colorado property owners are surprised by the amount their property’s value went up in just two years.
An important reason why many increases are substantial is based on the timing of comparable sales.
By statue, each County will only consider comparable sales used for the valuation between 7/1/2020 and 6/30/22.
This particular 24-month period happens to be one of the most active and robust real estate markets in history.
It can also be confusion that a new valuation received in May 2023 is based on comparable sales from way back in 2020, 2021 and the first half of 2022.
If you do plan to protest, comparable sales during that same 24-month period are the only ones which can be considered.
You may have questions about your new valuation and you may want to protest.
In any case, we are happy to help you.
Simply reach out to us!
The post TAX ASSESSMENT TIME appeared first on Fort Collins Real Estate | Fort Collins Homes for Sale & Property Search.
This week’s fun fact is that you just received your new valuation from your County Assessor and you have until June 8th to protest the value.
By statute, properties in Colorado are re-assessed every two years and owners are given their new Assessed Valuation in early May.
This year, many Colorado property owners are surprised by the amount their property’s value went up in just two years.
An important reason why many increases are substantial is based on the timing of comparable sales.
By statue, each County will only consider comparable sales used for the valuation between 7/1/2020 and 6/30/22.
This particular 24-month period happens to be one of the most active and robust real estate markets in history.
It can also be confusion that a new valuation received in May 2023 is based on comparable sales from way back in 2020, 2021 and the first half of 2022.
If you do plan to protest, comparable sales during that same 24-month period are the only ones which can be considered.
You may have questions about your new valuation and you may want to protest.
In any case, we are happy to help you.
Simply reach out to us!
The post TAX ASSESSMENT TIME appeared first on Fort Collins Real Estate | Fort Collins Homes for Sale & Property Search.
This is a market which is changing quickly. We are studying the numbers every day so we can be clear about where the market is heading.
Here is a check on the market halfway through October.
Compared to last October…
Prices continue to be higher than last year. They are up 12% in Northern Colorado and 13% in Metro Denver. We don’t expect double-digit increases to continue, but don’t expect anything like a price crash.
The post Halfway Check appeared first on Fort Collins Real Estate | Fort Collins Homes for Sale & Property Search.
There is half of a month of inventory on the market. In other words, at the current pace of sales, it would take just two weeks to sell all of the homes currently listed for sale along the Front Range.
By definition, a market is balanced when there is 4 to 6 months of inventory. Anything less than that is a seller’s market.
The current inventory levels give us confidence about the future of price growth along the Front Range.
While we expect the pace of price appreciation to slow, the low supply of properties insulates us against any sort of price decline.
The post Half A Month appeared first on Fort Collins Real Estate | Fort Collins Homes for Sale & Property Search.
The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.
Regional Economic Overview
Following a decent summer when Colorado added around 14,000 jobs each month, the pace of recovery has slowed. That said, the latest data shows that more than 320,000 of the 376,000 jobs shed due to the pandemic have now returned. The state still needs to add a little more than 54,000 jobs in order to get back to pre-pandemic employment levels. Even though there has been a slowdown in the job recovery, which is likely due to the rise of new COVID-19 variants, I am still forecasting the state will return to its prior employment peak by the end of the summer. As jobs return, the employment rate continues to drop; it was 5.1% in November, well below the pandemic peak of 12.1%. Although it would be nice to see a lower rate, more people have returned to the workforce and are actively looking for work, which can stall job growth rates. From a regional perspective, unemployment levels range from a low of 3.8% in Boulder, to a high of 5.2% in Grand Junction.
Colorado Home Sales
❱ In the final quarter of the year, 11,714 homes sold, representing a drop of 5.3% compared to the fourth quarter of 2020 and a drop of 17.6% compared to the third quarter of the year.
❱ While sales slowed region-wide, 4 of the 12 counties included in this report actually experienced significant sales increases.
❱ I’m not concerned that sales slowed compared to third quarter, as seasonal factors were likely the cause. It’s also likely that the year-over-year decline was due to the fact that there were 30% fewer homes for sale in the fourth quarter of 2021 than there were the previous year.
❱ Pending sales, which are an indicator of future closings, fell 29% compared to the third quarter, suggesting that closings in the first quarter of 2022 may also be light.
Colorado Home Prices
❱ The pace of home-price growth continued to slow, albeit modestly. The average sale price rose 14.8% year over year, to an average of $610,275. Prices also rose .8% from the previous quarter.
❱ Boulder County’s price growth was noteworthy, but of even greater interest was that average sale prices are holding above the $1 million ceiling.
❱ Year-over-year, prices rose across all markets covered by this report, with double-digit gains in all but three counties.
❱ The number of homes for sale remains woefully low in most areas, which continues to put upward pressure on home prices. That said, the pace of appreciation slowed through most of 2021. This trend is likely to continue in 2022.
Days on Market
❱ The average number of days it took to sell a home in the markets contained in this report fell five days compared to the final quarter of 2020.
❱ The length of time it took to sell a home dropped in every county other than Clear Creek County compared to the same quarter a year ago.
❱ It took an average of only 21 days to sell a home in the region. Although the pace dropped year over year, it rose 9 days compared to the previous quarter.
❱ Ongoing supply limitations and strong demand have caused the pace of sales to remain brisk. That said, the length of time it took to sell a home rose compared to the third quarter. I don’t think this is a major concern and can likely be attributed to seasonal factors.
Conclusions
This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.
Inventory is still lacking, which is causing prices to rise at well-above-average rates. That said, despite how few homes are for sale, the pace of appreciation has been slowing and will likely continue to do so as mortgage rates climb.
My current forecast is for 30-year rates to stairstep higher as we move through the year, which will act as a headwind to price growth. Although I do not see rates getting above 4% until 2023, the increase in borrowing costs will start to have a greater impact on home prices.
In addition to rising mortgage rates, the significant growth in prices over the past year has started to impact housing affordability. Although the market will continue to perform well, rising financing costs and lower affordability may slowly move the market back toward some sort of balance.
All things considered, I am moving the needle a little toward buyers, but it still heavily favors home sellers.
About Matthew Gardner
As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.
The post Q4 2021 Colorado Real Estate Market Update appeared first on Fort Collins Real Estate | Fort Collins Homes for Sale & Property Search.
The standing inventory of residential properties currently for sale is staggeringly low.
The number of active properties for sale is almost 90% below the average for this time of year.
In Metro Denver, there are 1,144 residential properties for sale today.
In Larimer County, there are 136 and in Weld County there are 174.
Current inventory along the Front Range is essentially half of what it was one year ago.
The low standing inventory bolsters our belief that nothing resembling a decline in housing prices is on the horizon. The low supply will continue to put upward pressure on prices.
It is time to register for our annual Market Forecast with Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. This year the event will be hosted online on Thursday February 3rd from 11:00 to 12:00.
You can register at www.ColoradoForecast.com
The post Standing Low appeared first on Fort Collins Real Estate | Fort Collins Homes for Sale & Property Search.
Many of our clients wonder if the current pace of price growth can continue. Some even ask if prices will decline this year.
Based on researching the Case-Shiller Home Price index and the National Association of Realtors home inventory data, there must be at least 6 months of inventory in a market for prices to have any chance of declining. We wrapped up 2021 with about 2 weeks of inventory across Larimer County, Weld County and Metro Denver. This marks a 43%-46% decrease in inventory as compared to December 2020.
The dwindling supply and the rising prices have led to a lot of questions about the future of the housing market. Is there a market crash on the horizon? Is there a housing bubble that’s about the burst? The answer is no. Although it is unlikely that the market can continue at this pace indefinitely, all signs point to a healthy housing market in 2022.
The post Housing Inventory appeared first on Fort Collins Real Estate | Fort Collins Homes for Sale & Property Search.
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