The shortage of homes for sale has been a major concern for buyers and real estate agents over the last few years. Windermere Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, explains the impact these shortages are having on the housing market.
Because our Northern Colorado market has been so active over the last four years, clients often ask us if we think there is a housing bubble forming.
There are several key statistics which we track closely in order to answer that question.
Here is one fact that we find to be insightful…
One of the root causes of the last housing bubble was the glut of inventory, and specifically new home inventory. Quite simply, the market was being oversupplied with new homes. The rules of economics say when there is oversupply, prices must come down.
Today, there are far fewer new home starts compared to 2004 and 2005 when the last bubble was forming – despite there being a larger population.
According to our friends at Metrostudy who track the new home market, Northern Colorado has had 4,452 new home starts in the last 12 months.
That number is only 60% of what it was at the height of construction in early 2005.
It is also interesting to note that over the last 12 months there have been 4,473 new home closings which shows that demand is keeping up with supply.
So when you drive around Northern Colorado and notice all the new homes being built, know that construction activity is far less than what is was during the bubble and that demand is keeping up with supply.
In case you missed our annual real estate Forecast event, you can reach out to us to see the presentation slides or receive a video recap of the information. Just email us at email@example.com
The new tax bill is expected to be signed by the end of the year. Here is a summary of what it means for your real estate…
The new tax bill:
- Retains the current law for exclusion of capital gains on a principal residence. You still need to live in a home for 2 of the last 5 years to claim a capital gains exclusion. There was a risk that this would be changed to 5 of the last 8 years, but thankfully it did not.
- Reduces the limit of deductible mortgage debt from $1 Million to $750,000.
- Retains the ability to deduct mortgage debt on second homes.
- Allows for an itemized deduction of up to $10,000 for property taxes. When the bill was first introduced, there was no allowance for a property tax deduction.
- Retains the current 1031 like-kind exchange rules which is terrific news for investors.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.25% this week. It was their 3rd rate increase this year.
This has us thinking about mortgage rates.
Today, 30-year mortgage rates are 3.93%.
Let’s put this in context with a little history lesson. Mortgage rates were…
- 3.90% 6 months ago
- 4.13% 1 year ago
- 3.54% 18 months ago
- 3.32% 5 years ago
- 5.96% 10 years ago
- 7.15% 20 years ago
So where are rates headed? Given that the Federal Reserve is expected to raise their rate three to four more times in 2018, we expect mortgage rates to be higher one year from today.
The Mortgage Bankers Association predicts rates to be 4.8% in the 4th quarter of next year. Freddie Mac’s prediction is 4.4%. If these predictions are true, that would mean mortgage rates would be back to where there were 6 to 7 years ago.
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